Can the yield curve still predict recessions?

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The ‘Fearless Girl’ statue stands in front of the New York Stock Exchange.

Angela Weiss/Getty Images

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Angela Weiss/Getty Images

The ‘Fearless Girl’ statue stands in front of the New York Stock Exchange.

Angela Weiss/Getty Images

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that’s happened in the past, a recession has come. In fact, the inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969 … until now. Today, are we saying goodbye to the inverted yield curve’s flawless record?

Related episodes:
The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION (Apple / Spotify)
Yield curve jitters
Two Yield Curve Indicators

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