This year’s NBA Rank top 100 has plenty of new faces, with 20 players — one-fifth of the list — not appearing in 2023.
Most newcomers to previous NBA Rank lists fell into three categories: veterans who were previously passed over, rising stars and rookies. This year is unusual in having no rookies at all. That almost certainly won’t be the case next season, when a heralded crop of prospects headlined by Duke forward Cooper Flagg (the top-ranked prospect on ESPN’s Big Board) is expected to enter the NBA draft. However, this year’s top 100 is heavy on sophomores, with five on the list.
Of those five, only San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama was ranked as a rookie. The list also features a number of players who simply played their way on the list, particularly by excelling in the playoffs.
As we unveil our full list this week (starting with the players ranked 100-51), let’s predict the 10 players who have the best chance of appearing next season.
Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher is the first No. 1 pick not to make the top 100 as a rookie since Anthony Edwards in 2020. Given the hype around the 2025 draft, it’s almost certain that whoever emerges at No. 1 will crack the top 100. And heading into his freshman campaign at Duke, Flagg has the best chance to be taken No. 1. If he performs as expected, Flagg will be on this list in a year.
It’s less common for rookies taken after the No. 1 pick to appear in NBA Rank. In fact, just three No. 2 picks have been ranked in the past decade: Lonzo Ball (2017), Ja Morant (2019) and Jalen Green (2021). Despite that history, I’m betting on Traore, who emerged as a top-tier prospect with his play at the Nike Hoop Summit. Traore has been more productive at a younger age than Risacher and the other 2024 lottery pick who played in France, Charlotte Hornets forward Tidjane Salaun. If Traore can keep up his production in the French league, I think he’ll crack the top 100.
Every Rookie of the Year has appeared on NBA Rank the following season, and Edey will likely be my preseason pick for the award. If the two-time consensus national player of the year can stay on the court for starter’s minutes and is anywhere near as productive as he was at Purdue, he stands an excellent chance of cracking the top 100. After all, unlike most of the top picks, Edey is joining a Grizzlies team with a chance to win big with better health this season.
One of two players who we also predicted in 2023 could make this year’s NBA Rank, Murphy made slight improvements across the board in his per-game averages and played a key role as the Pelicans returned to the playoffs. Injuries limited Murphy to 57 games, and a quick playoff exit conspired to keep him off the top 100 this season. I’m betting on Murphy again, even though he’s already dealing with a hamstring strain during the preseason. At some point, Murphy’s combination of shooting and size will earn him a full-time starting role that will capture the attention of the NBA Rank panel.
After Edey, Sheppard would be my next choice for Rookie of the Year. The No. 3 pick has a path to a much bigger role in Year 2 if the Rockets move on from starting point guard Fred VanVleet after this season. Sheppard’s accurate shooting (52% on 3s during his lone season at Kentucky), quick hands on defense and savvy playmaking give him a stronger outlook for 2025-26 than either of the players taken ahead of him (Risacher and Alex Sarr).
Of the 2023 draft picks who missed out on this year’s NBA Rank, nobody had a more promising rookie campaign than Thompson. He particularly excelled as a starter after Alperen Sengun’s season-ending ankle sprain and bone bruise, averaging 13.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists as a de facto starting center. Thompson’s defensive versatility and athleticism should fit ideally on the second unit next to Sheppard. The biggest question mark is how Thompson’s role might grow heading into his third season, given Houston’s depth of young talent.
Like Murphy, Vassell is back for a second year on this list. In many ways, last season was Vassell’s breakout. He averaged 19.5 PPG and 4.1 APG, both career highs, and did so over 68 games after being limited to just 38 in his strong 2022-23 campaign. Voters probably want to see Vassell keep that production up in more meaningful settings, and Wembanyama’s development — along with the additions of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes — may give him that opportunity this season.
One of three players ranked in the top 70 last year who fell off this season’s list, Kessler has a better chance of altering his current perception than the other two (Deandre Ayton and Josh Giddey).
Kessler’s rim protection, the strength of his game, was as effective as it was during his rookie season, according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats. Opponents made just 51% of shots within 5 feet when Kessler was the primary defender, third lowest among qualifying players. The issue in 2023-24 was Kessler’s 2-point percentage dropping from 72% to 68%, as well as his fit with forward John Collins.
As Utah focuses on player development, I’d expect the 23-year-old Kessler to be favored over Collins, who is entering the final season of his contract.
This might be optimistic, given that Melton has never rated in the top 100. I think he had a good chance of doing so last season had he stayed healthy, however. Melton averaged a career-high 11.1 PPG as a key part of the Philadelphia 76ers‘ starting five that went 22-11 with him available. Back injuries limited Melton to six games after Jan. 12, but he’s on the court for training camp and has a chance to play a key role for Golden State along the lines of NBArank newcomer Donte DiVincenzo.
Team success is a common theme for the role players who joined this year’s top 100. Because he missed last year’s first-round loss because of neck spasms, Rozier hasn’t appeared in the playoffs since 2019 with the Boston Celtics. Rozier should get back this season, and if he’s healthy, the Heat could be more competitive this time around. That might translate into Rozier’s first NBA Rank appearance since 2021.
