107 days until Opening Day …
One whole day since Juan Soto signed, and no other superstars changed teams? What the heck, I was told this stove was going to be hot!
We had a few minor signings Monday, but clearly, we’re going to have to be a little more patient with the higher end of the free agency market, which is fine — the Winter Meetings have barely even begun, after all. We’re hoping to avoid the kind of situation that seemingly wrecked the start of Blake Snell’s season a year ago, but it’s too early to worry too much about that.
You can, of course, keep track of all the offseason moves you need to know about in our Offseason Tracker, where Scott White and I are breaking down every move. Monday saw Jordan Romano become the likely favorite for saves in Philly after signing a one-year deal there, while Alex Cobb will try to follow Jack Flaherty’s lead and rebuild his value with a Tigers team that seems to be about as good at maximizing pitchers as almost anyone these days.
I went through top prospect lists from the past few seasons to try to identify 11 guys we were really excited about at one point but who haven’t done much to justify the hype so far in the majors. That starts with a couple of outfielders from the 2023 draft who disappointed in their first tastes of the majors in 2024:
Worth waiting on?
I still see star potential in …
Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers – The hype got out of control for Langford last spring. We can say that now, but at the time, he looked like one of the true can’t-miss prospects in baseball – which should make us reconsider the certainty with which we put star expectations on unproven players, perhaps. But he was pretty mediocre all season long, showing strong tools but struggling to put them into play consistently … until September. Something definitely clicked for Langford over the season’s final month, as he hit .300/.386/.610 with eight homers and seven steals, the kind of all-around impact production we were hoping to see all along. Langford is a premium athlete who grew more comfortable being aggressive on the bases as the season went on, and he put up a whopping .386 xwOBA over his final 100 PA, comparable to what Fernando Tatis managed in 2024. Tatis is, of course, a first-rounder, and Langford absolutely still has that kind of upside. Some may be scared off after last year’s experience, but while the overall numbers were disappointing, at least we have a proof of concept for what a superstar version of Langford looks like.
Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals – Given how high the expectations were following his incredible collegiate career, it’s fair to say that Crews has been pretty underwhelming as a professional so far. His .275/.351/.455 line in the minors has been fine, but hardly what we expected from one of the best college hitters we’ve ever seen; his .219/.288/.353 in the majors was a long way from fine, even. But there’s still plenty to be optimistic about. Like Langford, Crews showed he is a premium athlete, and his 12 steals in 31 games in the majors are a sign that he might be even more of a stolen base threat than we ever gave him credit for; his 93rd percentile sprint speed backs that up. And while he wasn’t great with the Nationals, he certainly wasn’t overwhelmed – he had a below-average strikeout rate and an above-average walk rate, with solid underlying plate discipline metrics, too. We’re still waiting for more of the power to show up in games, but Crews already has a solid, well-rounded skill set and should be a decent source of batting average and stolen bases. And if the power comes along, well, there’s a reason this guy has been viewed as a top-10 worldwide prospect pretty consistently for the past 4-5 years.
I’m still hopeful about …
Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles – Mayo was hyped for so long as The Next Big Thing last season, but when he finally got the chance with the Orioles … he kind of didn’t. They called him up in August only to start him six times in 11 games, and when he returned in September, he started just six of the team’s final 25 games. So I’m really not going to hold his .098/.196/.098 line in the majors against him – 46 plate appearances shouldn’t change anything about how you view any player, let alone a then-22-year-old, consensus top prospect. Mayo hit .287/.364/.562 in 89 games at Triple-A last season, and while there’s some swing-and-miss to his game, there’s also plenty of both raw and present in-game power, as evidenced by his 34 career homers in 151 games at the level. The biggest question at this point is whether he’ll have an Opening Day role, and we should expect Mayo’s perceived value in Fantasy to explode if the Orioles trade their Ryan Mountcastle or Ryan O’Hearn, something they probably need to do at this point – unless they want to trade Mayo to land a star player.
Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees – Because he was one of the most hyped international free agents of all time – and because, let’s face it, he ultimately signed with the Yankees – Dominguez has been the product of nearly endless discussion in prospect circles for what feels like a decade. 2025 figures to be the last time Dominguez is eligible for inclusion on top prospect lists, but that will represent his sixth inclusion on Baseball America’s top-100 prospects list. In spite of that, plus Dominguez’s two stints in the majors, he still feels like something of an unknown quantity. There’s still plenty of raw power in Dominguez’s profile, and the footspeed remains a strength as well – he stole 21 bases in just 317 plate appearances across the majors and minors in 2024. But there remain big concerns about his ability to make consistent enough contact and maximize the contact he does make to live up to the loftiest expectations of him. Dominguez did show some growth with the former issue as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery last season, striking out just 20% of the time in the minors, though he did look pretty overwhelmed at the MLB level. He didn’t make much contact, and when he did, he had a tendency to hit the ball into the ground, something that was an issue too often in the minors. Dominguez still has the ceiling of an impact Fantasy bat, and his 156.3 early ADP in NFC drafts isn’t too much of a price to pay for that upside. But I’d much rather take the chance on Crews at a similar price.
Kyle Manzardo, DH, Guardians – Manzardo’s play in September and the postseason might have forced the budget-conscious Guardians into a tough decision this offseason. I’m pretty sure Manzardo is going to have an Opening Day job somewhere in Cleveland’s lineup for 2025 after hit posted an .873 OPS in September and nearly matched it in the playoffs, but recent reporting indicates that the Guardians might be looking to move incumbent first baseman Josh Naylor this offseason, a potential sign of their confidence in Manzardo. Manzardo has struggled to hit for average in Triple-A, but it hasn’t really stopped him from being a productive hitter thanks to his patience and power, and with Progressive Field suddenly playing like a hitter’s park for left-handers (especially with home runs), Manzardo could be in line to replace Naylor, with similar upside if he hits.
Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles – Okay, so with this one, I really don’t have anything to point to that I can say should make you optimistic. Holliday was overmatched in his first MLB season, racking up huge whiff totals, even on pitches in the strike zone, an especially concerning sign for a guy who was supposed to have a plus hit tool. His 33.6% whiff rate on four-seam fastballs was in the 7th percentile among all major-leaguers last season, and if you can’t hit the straight stuff in the majors, you’re gonna have a bad time with the slower, bendier stuff, which is exactly what happened with Holliday. He held his own at Triple-A, hitting .271/.431/.477, and just turned 21 last week, so that’s where the optimism comes from. But if Holliday struggled again in 2025, that wouldn’t be surprised at all based on what we saw last season.
Shane Baz, SP, Rays – I can’t quite figure out where I want to land on Baz for 2025. His return from Tommy John surgery in 2024 was mostly successful, but his four-seamer velocity was down about 1.5 mph from his small-sample peak in 2021, and his strikeout rate was basically dead-on average – not what we’re looking for from a purported future ace. The key to watch in Spring Training will be where his slider is at. It was supposed to be his best putaway pitch, but his 22.2% whiff rate with it in 2024 was a pretty poor mark, and it’s hard to see how he unlocks real upside without it. If he has a sharper version of the slider this spring – say, three-plus inches of glove-side break rather than two-ish – that could be a sign that the breakout is coming. But the move away from Tropicana Field for 2025 does make the margin for error much slimmer.
Nick Lodolo, SP, Reds – I’m mostly willing to give Lodolo a mulligan for his second-half struggles last season, as he told reporters his middle finger was basically never healthy after coming back from a blister long before that injury ultimately ended his season. When he went on the IL in late June, he had a 2.76 ERA, 3.37 FIP, and 26.1% strikeout rate; when he came back, his curveball whiff rate collapsed, and the whole profile went sideways. It’s more than a little concerning that we’ve seen what the downside can look like, and Lodolo’s home park will never do him any favors. But I still think we haven’t seen the best of him.
I’m losing faith in …
Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets – Where did the power go? Mets hitting coach Eric Chavez spoke this summer about wanting to “get [the] hit tool down, and the power will come,” but Alvarez showed little growth in either part of the equation in 2024, with his strikeout rate still sitting at 25.1% while he posted across the board declines in quality of contact. Alvarez is still just 23, so I certainly don’t want to give up on him, especially when the bar for Fantasy relevance at catcher remains so low. But this was supposed to be a guy with difference-making power for the position, but he went from 25 to 11 homers in his second full season in the majors. Maybe a mid-season thumb injury limited more than the Mets let on, but I’m still struggling to get excited about Alvarez. The good news is, his current ADP – 153.97 in NFC drafts – makes him a pretty nice value, even with my skepticism.
Max Meyer, SP, Marlins – I decided to look back at what BaseballProspectus had to say about Meyer when he was still a prospect, and here’s what they had to say about him before the 2023 season:
“Meyer’s slider might have been the best single pitch in the 2020 draft. It’s arguably been the best pitch in the minors the last two years … The Marlins, being the Marlins, have helped him to develop a plus change as well … He sits around 95 [with his fastball], but the pitch is very pedestrian in both shape and command, and his short stature and traditional high-three-quarters slot gives him little added approach angle or extension.”
That was, of course, while Meyer was recovering from Tommy John surgery, and when he came back in 2024, he didn’t really look like that guy. His fastball velocity was down to 94.1 mph, and that pitch got absolutely destroyed, and the rest of the arsenal didn’t really make up for it. The slider was a good pitch, but it wasn’t exactly special compared to other sliders around baseball in 2024 – among 82 pitchers who finished 100 PA with their slider, his RV/100 ranked just 50th, while his whiff rate was 44th (both per BaseballSavant.com). Add in what looked like a pretty mediocre changeup, and it just feels like we’re a long way removed from Meyer’s prospect days. It was his first extended taste of the majors in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, so I don’t want to write him off. But I certainly don’t see the ace upside we were hoping for from him.
We might need a change of scenery for …
Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds – It’s just not entirely clear where Marte fits for the Reds at this point. Third base is open for them, but he struggled there defensively almost as much as he did as a hitter after coming back from his PED suspension last season. I figure they’ll give him another shot as he is still just 23 years old, but I can’t imagine the leash is going to be particularly long here. Marte still has strong athletic skills, but his plate discipline just totally collapsed in 2024, and while I’m willing to give him something of a pass for how his season was disrupted, I’m not 100% sure we can pencil him in as an everyday guy for the Reds at this point. He’s a viable late-round dart throw, but not much more than that unless he has a huge spring.
