Typically, a closer losing their job is a moment of excitement for Fantasy players – at least, for the ones who don’t have the guy who lost his job – but that isn’t really the case in Pittsburgh. Because, somehow, the Pirates watched David Bednar’s terrible 2024 season and decided they didn’t really need to fortify their bullpen – despite ostensibly being a playoff contender with a full season of Paul Skenes along for the ride.
On Monday, Scott White wrote his first Bullpen Report column of the season, highlighting the mess the Reds, Dodgers, Rangers, and Phillies have already made of their bullpens. And then the Pirates went out and made an even bigger mess of theirs Tuesday, sending Bednar, a former All-Star, down to Triple-A after another disastrous start to the season.
The problem here is, while there’s certainly an opportunity in Pittsburgh’s bullpen, I’m just not sure anyone is really going to take advantage of it. Here’s what the Pirates current bullpen looks like, with rest-of-season ATC projections from each pitcher:
- Colin Holderman: 3.84 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.34 WHIP
- Caleb Ferguson: 3.76 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 1.36 WHIP
- Dennis Santana: 4.21 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.32 WHIP
- Ryan Borucki: 4.21 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 1.37 WHIP
- Justin Lawrence: 4.60 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.48 WHIP
- Tim Mayza: 4.19 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 1.40 WHIP
- Joey Wentz: 4.54 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.42 WHIP
It’s a decidedly uninspiring group, with no obvious next man up. Holderman has, in a fun example of nominative determinism, been working as a setup man so far this season, but he’s been about as bad as Bednar in his limited opportunities; Santana might have closer stuff, but he also has a 4.73 career ERA and less than a K per inning; Lawrence at least has some closing experience in Colorado, but his 5.42 career ERA doesn’t give us much to get excited about, even acknowledging that he was pitching in Coors Field. And on and on down the line.
So, yeah, I’m not particularly excited about anyone in this ‘pen. I’ll let manager Derek Shelton tell me who the closer is before I decide to try to add anyone because I don’t think there’s enough upside here to justify a speculative add. If you’re forcing me to guess – first of all: Wow, rude, just ask next time – I’d say Holderman is most likely to step up from the eighth to the ninth, though I have little confidence in either that guess or his ability to take the job and run with it.
And anyway, given how little the Pirates did to build the bullpen up this offseason, I suspect they just want Bednar to be the closer again before long if he can get back on track at Triple-A. They didn’t seem to have any kind of Plan B here, so don’t view him as an auto-drop.
For more on the state of the closer position, make sure you check out Scott’s column here but don’t expect any of the Pirates options to be someone you need to run out and grab. Now, let’s get to everything else you need to know from Tuesday’s action around MLB:
Wednesday’s top waiver-wire targets
Here’s who we’re looking to add coming out of Tuesday’s action:
Shane Baz, SP, Rays (81%) – We usually focus on guys who are more widely available than this, but Baz made a big statement Tuesday that he needs to be 100% rostered. Another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Baz was throwing his four-seamer 1.5 mph harder than he did last season, though notably, the rest of his arsenal didn’t get a velocity bump, creating more separation between the four-seamer and everything else. It really worked for the curveball, which he threw 35% of the time as his primary pitch, generating eight swings and misses and 10 called strikes with it. The rest of the arsenal wasn’t quite as overpowering, though Baz’s slider did seem to have a movement profile closer to his pre-surgery version, with a few inches more drop, which is a good sign. All in all, he struck out 10 batters over six shutout innings, and looks like he might just have a chance to live up to the upside he once showed as one of the top prospects in the game. No guarantees are moving forward, but this was obviously a very exciting performance.
Casey Mize, SP, Tigers (54%) – We’ve been waiting for a Mize breakout for years, and this might actually be the best he’s ever looked. It wasn’t perfect – he left a lot of sliders up in the zone, especially to lefties – but it was more than good enough against a mediocre lineup in a great pitcher’s park, as he struck out six over 5.2 innings, with three walks and only one hit allowed as he left in line for the win. Mize’s spring velocity bump wasn’t there, but he showed three different slider variations and generated 15 swinging strikes. Mize has always had upside, and we’re finally seeing it. I don’t trust him against the Yankees in his next start, but if he gets through that one well, he could be useful against the Twins after that.
Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals (43%) – A hard-hit ball in the air? Hello, Jordan Walker, it’s nice to see you. Look, the physical tools have never been in doubt, and Walker is still, somehow, just 22 years old, so I’ll take any positive signs I can get. He went back to his old swing from his prospect days, and maybe that process was enough to unlock the latent upside here. It’s a tiny sample size, but he’s hitting well so far, going 6 for 13 with just two strikeouts to open the season, and that’s going to be enough for me to take a flier on a player with Walker’s tools.
Ben Rice, 1B, Yankees (44%) – Here’s the big question with Rice: How likely is it that he can force the Yankees to give him a chance to play regularly against lefties? I think he’s just a good hitter, and his two homers in 11 plate appearances so far aren’t a fluke – he struggled last season, but his underlying numbers were much better, and his pull-heavy swing is extremely well-suited to Yankee Stadium. If he’s just a righty-masher, he’ll have some utility for Fantasy, but if he gets a real shot at everyday playing time, he could be a Fantasy mainstay. For now, he’s behind Spencer Torkelson and Kyle Manzardo, and likely in the same tier as Tyler Soderstrom, but he has a similarly high ceiling if he gets the opportunity.
A.J. Puk, RP, Diamondbacks (43%) – One reliever I am willing to chase if he’s out there is Puk, who finally got the Diamondbacks’ first save opportunity for the D-Backs Tuesday. I will note that his usage in the ninth inning could be the result of the lineup, as the Yankees had three straight lefties up in the ninth, while Martinez was used in the eighth against the heart of the lineup – and he struck out Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm, and Anthony Volpe, a reminder that he could be pretty awesome as the closer, too. But here’s the thing: Puk is going to be useful even if it’s a co-closer situation. The fact that he got the first save could be a sign that he’s in the lead, but even if he isn’t, you’re going to be happy you have him around in any category-based league. So just go add him.
Jake Mangum, OF, Rays (0%) – I don’t really think there’s much here, to be honest. Mangum is a career .287/.341/.440 hitter as an older minor-league, with little over-the-fence pop and good-not-great speed. That being said, I’m not going to be so stubborn as to ignore another multi-hit game from him Tuesday, bringing him to 7 for 11 with his third steal in as many games. When all it costs is a few bucks of FAB in a deeper league, why not see if there’s something real here? I wouldn’t be looking in any 12-team mixed leagues, but I don’t mind a flier in a deeper league.
