What’s left to play for in the final two F1 races in 2024?

Now that Formula 1’s 2024 world drivers’ championship has been secured by Max Verstappen after Las Vegas, it could be assumed that the races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi are little more than dead rubbers. In reality, the 2024 season is far from over as there’s still plenty to play for across the final two races.

Some of the honours left to lay claim are more valuable than others – both prestige and prize money are on the table. Here are the battles that remain to be concluded in this 2024 season.

Which team will be world champion in 2024?

Although the drivers’ championship is well and truly over, the constructors’ championship is still in full swing. In addition, the race between McLaren and Ferrari, first and second in the standings, is very close and could offer something of a spectacle.

McLaren currently leads the way with 608 points, while the Prancing Horse has 584. Ferrari managed to take 12 points out of McLaren’s advantage at the Las Vegas Grand Prix, reducing the gap to 24 points. The Nevada round seemed to be Ferrari’s last real opportunity to deliver a decisive blow to McLaren’s lead, as the last two rounds should be more favourable to the Woking outfit.

However, nothing is decided between the two teams, and it must not be forgotten that Red Bull is still in mathematical contention. The reigning world champion is more than 50 points behind McLaren and, although it is possible to close the gap, there’s a slim chance of that happening.

Red Bull adviser Helmut Marko declared after the race last weekend that the constructors’ championship was no longer possible for Red Bull, admitting that Sergio Perez’s travails in the second car had delivered a significant hit to its chances. “Checo has over 200 points less than Max, and then it’s clear that the constructors’ title is no longer possible. If Sergio was anywhere near [Lewis] Hamilton and [George] Russell or Ferrari or even McLaren, then we would be well ahead again.”

The most realistic target for the Milton Keynes team seems to be second place in the championship, although it must overhaul Ferrari’s 29-point lead in the standings.

Which driver will be drivers’ championship runner-up in 2024?

Lando Norris is still second to Verstappen for the moment, with 340 points on the board. But Charles Leclerc has outscored Norris across the past four races and is now just 21 points behind Norris.

He will have to beat the Briton comprehensively over the next two rounds, which may be a tough ask if the nature of the Qatar and Abu Dhabi circuits play more into the hands of the McLaren chassis. Oscar Piastri may not be in the frame for second, but could take third if Leclerc toils – and the Australian has prior success at the Losail circuit, having won his first sprint victory in Qatar last year.

Which mid-grid team will be the highest ranked?

There are only four points separating Haas, Alpine, and RB in the team standings. While Alpine had pulled off a masterstroke at the Brazilian Grand Prix and pocketed 35 points in one go, which had propelled them directly ahead of its rivals, the French squad lost its advantage with an awful race in Las Vegas for both drivers.

Pierre Gasly was on course to score big points once again thanks to his superb second row qualifying, but an engine problem would end his chances midway through the race. Esteban Ocon hopes of a top 10 were dashed when the team did not react to its own pit call and no mechanics were there to greet him. Nico Hulkenberg’s strong performance allowed Haas to reclaim sixth place in the championship.

With 50 points, the American team only has a one-point lead over Alpine, which has 49. Behind, RB has 46 points and was able to remain in touching distance thanks to Yuki Tsunoda’s tidy run to ninth.

Aston Martin is likely out of reach in fifth, with a 36-point lead over Haas. However, the British team’s recent performances and the eye-watering gap of 339 points to the fourth-placed Mercedes have already prompted a technical rethink; Dan Fallows was relieved of his responsibilities as technical director.

Who will be alongside Max Verstappen in 2025?

The last two grands prix of 2024 will likely contribute to the decision over which driver will accompany Tsunoda at RB in 2025. However, another important factor comes into play: the future of Sergio Perez. The Mexican’s season has been dismal, and his mediocre results at the wheel of the RB20 versus that of his title-winning team-mate has likely cost Red Bull the constructors’ championship.

This has led to consistent speculation that the 34-year-old driver will leave, especially since there is a queue for Perez’s seat. Tsunoda and Liam Lawson are hoping to move up to the main team and have also proven with their latest race results that they both deserve a chance at the primary team.

Will Tsunoda manage to “continue to destroy” his team-mates and get the opportunity that he has coveted for so long? Will it be Lawson who leapfrogs the Japanese driver in the Red Bull pecking order – or will Perez end up staying at the team after all? Helmut Marko has revealed that a meeting with Red Bull shareholders, which will take place after Abu Dhabi, will decide the future of the two teams’ line-ups.

Will Hamilton finish in his worst place in the championship?

Given the tribulations of Lewis Hamilton’s 2024 season, all eyes have been on 2025 for some time, when he will finally don the red of Ferrari. Unfortunately for the seven-time world champion, the 2024 campaign is not over and could well put obstacles in his way until the end.

Between his poor qualifying performances and the ordeals he experienced at the wheel of the W15, 2024 will be one of his least enjoyable seasons. Until then, the Mercedes driver had never finished worse than sixth in the drivers’ standings – back in 2022. He’s currently seventh, 11 points behind his team-mate in front of him, with two rounds still to run.

Regardless, the Briton has enjoyed some significant high points to a generally low-key year; his victory at Silverstone or more recently his performance in the streets of Las Vegas have been the clear peaks. However, these very well-executed races contrast sharply with other much worse results – and his qualifying missteps for the Las Vegas Grand Prix likely cost him the victory.

Will Sauber score a point in 2024?

It’s not a particularly encouraging statistic, particularly for those at Audi waiting to put their name to an F1 team: Sauber has not scored any points this season.

The Swiss team has had some flashes of performance, however, particularly last weekend in Las Vegas. The new floor introduced in Nevada seems to have made the difference, allowing Zhou to take 13th place, while also allowing himself to overtake Franco Colapinto on the final lap of the race. Could this be enough to revive hopes and put an end to this unfortunate statistic?

Qatar had been rather favourable to the two Saubers (then still called Alfa Romeos) last year, yielding its most recent points finish. Although the 2024 cars are completely different from those of 2023, any carry-over in performance might offer a final chance to get something on the board before the season is out. Both Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu both finished in the points at Losail in 2023, eighth and ninth respectably. Abu Dhabi was less successful; they finished the finale in 17th and 19th places.