Can the yield curve still predict recessions?

10


even more show art 9 de3c1d8300fc00de59f3549db29c3af6d6877a3e

Enlarge this image

The ‘Fearless Girl’ statue stands in front of the New York Stock Exchange.

Angela Weiss/Getty Images

hide caption

toggle caption

Angela Weiss/Getty Images

The ‘Fearless Girl’ statue stands in front of the New York Stock Exchange.

Angela Weiss/Getty Images

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that’s happened in the past, a recession has come. In fact, the inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969 … until now. Today, are we saying goodbye to the inverted yield curve’s flawless record?

Related episodes:
The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION (Apple / Spotify)
Yield curve jitters
Two Yield Curve Indicators

For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.

Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.

Previous articleWhat to Know About the Salmon on Your Plate
Next articleI’ve used Kindles since the first version, and here’s what Amazon is getting right about AI with the new Kindle Scribe