In tightly fought battle US opinion polls have dramatically flipped in Donald Trump’s favour. According to Polymarket, Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election have reached 60%, a significant milestone that hadn’t been reached since late July, shortly after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
In simpler terms, a 60% betting market rating means that traders expect Trump to win about 60 out of every 100 possible election outcomes, not that he is necessarily ahead in direct voter polls.
Prediction market gives a big boost to Donald Trump
Several other prediction markets also reflect this momentum for Trump. For instance, Betfair estimates a 58% chance of a Trump victory, while Kalshi pegs it at 57%, PredictIt at 54%, and Smarkets at 58%. The Election Betting Odds aggregator, which compiles data from these major platforms, places Trump’s odds at 57%, marking the highest tilt in his favor since the end of July, up from 48% at the end of September.
Polling data indicates a tough fight
However, the polling data presents a more nuanced picture. Poll aggregators like FiveThirtyEight suggest a slightly different scenario. FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages give Kamala Harris a slight edge, with around 48-49% in her favour compared to Trump’s 46-47%. However, the bigger battle lies in the seven swing states which again are giving a slight edge to Trump.
This polling trend is consistent with Real Clear Polling’s weighted averages, which show Harris holding a narrow lead of 49.2% to 47.7% over Trump.
Why does betting and prediction market show contracting trends?
These contrasting trends between prediction markets and polling data often occur in election cycles. Betting markets like those on Polymarket and other platforms indicate how participants perceive the probability of winning, which is not a direct reflection of polling percentages but rather an assessment of the likelihood of Trump winning in a variety of possible election scenarios.
Nate Silver, a statistician associated with FiveThirtyEight, has noted that betting markets may sometimes reflect a bias based on the demographics of participants. He suggests that Trump-leaning users on platforms like Polymarket may skew the results, leading to higher perceived odds for Trump even when polls suggest a closer contest.
In addition to prediction markets, broader financial indicators have also leaned in Trump’s favour. Stocks related to Trump’s business ventures, like Trump Media and Technology Group, have surged in recent weeks, with shares rising 86% in October. Some investors see these market moves as proxies for increasing confidence in a Trump victory. Financial sectors that could benefit from potential policy shifts under a Trump administration, such as banking and cryptocurrencies, have also shown strong performance.
