The Palestinian militant group Hamas is at a critical juncture following the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza this week. This marks the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its top leader after Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran in July.
As Hamas deliberates on its next leader, it must consider the preferences of its main backer, Iran, as well as the interests of Qatar, where the top contenders for the politburo chief reside.
Hamas will likely replace Yahya Sinwar with a new political leader based outside Gaza while his brother – Mohammad Sinwar – is expected to assume a bigger role in directing the war against Israel in the territory, reports Reuters citing experts.
Potential successors of Yahya Sinwar
– Khalil Al-Hayya: Sinwar’s deputy and Hamas’ chief negotiator, known for his defiant stance and close ties to Iran.
– Khaled Meshaal: Former Hamas leader and relatively moderate figure, though his prospects are clouded by past friction with Tehran.
– Mohammad Darwish: Chairman of the Shura Council, a lesser-known figure but still a contender for the top spot.
Experts predict that Hamas will stick to its core demands in future ceasefire talks, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and an end to the war. However, the group may show flexibility on certain conditions, such as prisoner exchanges.
The Shura Council, Hamas’ top decision-making body, will select the new leader, taking into account the interests of all Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, West Bank, Israeli prisons, and the Palestinian diaspora.
After more than a year of ferocious Israeli attacks that have pounded Hamas, killed thousands of its fighters, and eliminated senior figures both inside and outside of Gaza, it is not clear how the Islamist group will emerge from this latest blow.
Hamas was founded in 1987 and is a branch of the Sunni Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement. Its decisions are usually taken through consensus in Hamas institutions.
With Sinwar dead, the Hamas leadership for Gaza has temporarily passed to his Qatar-based deputy, Hayya.
But the ongoing war and communication difficulties might impose limits on just how much day-to-day contact Hayya can have with men on the ground, leaving the armed wing – the Qassam Brigades – in the driving seat, experts say.
