Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … PG De’Aaron Fox averages 30 PPG
Fox entered Wednesday fifth in the NBA in scoring, averaging a career high 28.8 PPG, and it helped quite a bit when he dropped 60 points on the Timberwolves last week. Then he followed it up with 49 points against the Jazz. Only the great Kobe Bryant had scored more points in consecutive games since Wilt Chamberlain roamed arenas. Fox is taking advantage of being Sacramento’s lone scorer with C/PF Domantas Sabonis and SF/PF DeMar DeRozan out with back injuries. They should return soon, but these are back problems … what if they linger?
Fantasy managers love the scoring, but they ultimately want the fantasy points. As with Timberwolves SG/SF Anthony Edwards, scoring at a career-best pace so far, Fox scoring more traditionally is not necessarily better for fantasy managers in points or categories formats. Last season, while averaging 26.6 PPG (a career best), Fox produced 46.9 ESPN fantasy PPG. This season, he is at 46.7 fantasy points. Gains in scoring are balanced by Fox hitting fewer 3-pointers and committing more turnovers.
Regardless, only eight players entered Wednesday with more ESPN fantasy points, and Fox, 26, ranked seventh on the Player Rater. Sabonis, 28, is a wonderful fantasy option, and durable in his Kings tenure, but not a big-time scorer or volume shot taker. DeRozan, 35, demands many shots, but lacks the usage from his Bulls days. Fox really can average 30 PPG even with a full Kings roster if he desires, as he ranks third in the league at 37.4 MPG, and few can match his usage rate. He sure looks like a top 10 fantasy option.
Don’t be surprised if … Payton Pritchard finishes top five in 3-pointers
The Celtics became the first team to vanquish the unbeaten Cavaliers on Tuesday night, doing so by draining 22 3-pointers. The Cavaliers hit only 10. Sometimes it really is that simple. Boston averages 19.1 3-pointers per game on 50.5 attempts, each by far the most in the league, just like last season when the Celtics won the NBA title. PF/SF Jayson Tatum is second on the league to Minnesota’s Edwards in 3-pointers made, while Celtics teammate SG/PG Derrick White is tied for fifth. Pritchard, with nary a start this season, is ninth. Not bad, eh?
Pritchard averaged 1.8 3PM last season, along with 9.6 PPG, but fantasy managers avoided him in any league smaller than 20 teams. This season, they cannot do that. Pritchard averages 3.7 3PM in 28.1 MPG, and the 15.3 PPG works for most fantasy managers, too. We would like more assists, of course, but Pritchard’s job is to fire up as many 3-pointers as possible. Most of the top 10 options in 3-pointers attempted per 36 minutes surprisingly are reserves, including Pritchard, Warriors SG/SF Buddy Hield, Pistons SG Malik Beasley and Heat SF Duncan Robinson.
Hield was among those analyzed in this space last week, as he is statistically outperforming the legend he replaced in Golden State, Klay Thompson, and it isn’t close. Hield is rostered in 83.9% of ESPN standard leagues. Pritchard, averaging roughly the same number of fantasy points as Hield and doing so in a similar fashion, is at 38.5%. OK, so Hield boasts more of a history of success than Pritchard does, but each fellow is among the leaders in 3-pointers, despite coming off the bench. Embrace them both.
Don’t be surprised if … Jrue Holiday becomes droppable
In other surprising Celtics news, PG/SG Jrue Holiday, as recently as two seasons ago a top 30 fantasy pick, is no longer producing anything resembling his past numbers. Don’t blame Pritchard. Holiday’s offensive role with Boston continues to fall and now, even before Thanksgiving, it may not make sense keeping him around on an ESPN standard fantasy roster. Holiday averages 25.9 ESPN fantasy points per game. Avoidable PGs such as Ben Simmons, Jose Alvarado and Carlton Carrington average more fantasy points, along with more than 120 other players.
Holiday remains rostered in more than 85% of ESPN standard leagues, based mostly on name value. Ah, Holiday was a fantastic fantasy option, even two seasons ago with the Bucks, when he averaged 19.3 PPG and 7.4 APG. Then Holiday averaged 12.5 PPG and 4.8 APG in his debut season with the Celtics, though he did win his second NBA championship. He remains a wonderful, defensive stalwart, but it doesn’t translate for fantasy. Holiday has gone from 37 fantasy points per game in 2022-23 to 32 points last season, and now he is at 25.9 fantasy points per game. It’s not good enough, but unfortunately, it’s not changing.
Don’t be surprised if … Jakob Poeltl is a top-10 center
Poeltl enters Thursday’s game with the Timberwolves averaging 40.5 ESPN fantasy points per game, not only tops among the Raptors — yes, even better than the injured Scottie Barnes — but his mark tops quite a few centers selected among the top 50 in ESPN ADP. Grizzlies C/PF Jaren Jackson Jr. isn’t averaging 40 fantasy points per game, nor is Heat C Bam Adebayo, either of the Cavaliers Cs Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, or longtime standout Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert. Don’t even ask about 76ers C Joel Embiid (24 fantasy points per game entering Wednesday).
All those other centers that Poeltl is outscoring in points leagues (and all but Mobley in roto/categories formats) are rostered in at least 92% of ESPN leagues. Poeltl, a steal of a 10th-round pick in ESPN ADP, still is not, despite finally becoming an All-Star caliber player in his ninth season. The Raptors need the production with Barnes out, and Poeltl is notching career highs in just about everything, playing 32.9 MPG, scoring at 17.1 PPG, adding 11.9 RPG, and even providing 1.2 SPG, and he was doing much of this before Barnes suffered an orbital fracture in late October.
Few probably figured Poeltl for a breakout season, but the Raptors are clearly rebuilding, and with injuries removing Barnes, PG/SG Immanuel Quickley and C/PF Kelly Olynyk, someone must score and rebound. Good for Poeltl. He is Toronto’s top fantasy option so far and while that may change with Barnes likely to return to the lineup soon, then again, it may not.
