Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … 76ers C Joel Embiid again misses half the season
Apologies for starting off with a negative, but this situation already appears dire. Embiid has clear and chronic knee problems, and the Philadelphia 76ers recently announced he would sit out the entire preseason to manage his health. The team also made it clear that Embiid will not be participating in both ends of the scheduled 14 back-to-backs this season, promptly erasing nearly a fifth of his potential schedule. The 76ers want Embiid healthy for the playoffs, period. Previous examples of load management have not worked. Will this work? Who knows, but we must be realistic in fantasy.
On a per-game production level, Embiid has few peers. The two-time NBA scoring champion improved last season, averaging 34.7 PPG, along with 11 RPG and easily a career-best 5.6 APG. He was one of only three players to average more than 60 ESPN fantasy points per game, but, of course, he played in only 39 games. ESPN Fantasy points leaders Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis missed a combined 37 games, an average of seven per player. Put simply, fantasy managers cannot treat Embiid like other elite (top 10) players in drafts, trades, etc.
Philadelphia signed rebounder extraordinaire Andre Drummond because it knew Embiid was going to be a modest — at best — regular season participant, as if the six months leading to the postseason barely mattered. Well, they sure matter to us in fantasy! The 76ers, with Tyrese Maxey, perhaps two-thirds of a Paul George season and ample, veteran depth, can afford this patience. Fantasy managers, replacing Embiid in daily formats with the likes of available centers Ivica Zubac and Dereck Lively II, and never knowing what to do in weekly leagues, will be frustrated.
None of this means you shouldn’t draft Embiid, but I sure wouldn’t go near him in the middle of Round 1. I would fade him among the top 20 picks, especially in weekly formats, and that means I will not get him, which is fine. Covet healthy players. One can make a case that the active roster spot of Embiid plus someone like Zubac, Lively or Jakob Poeltl will remain productive enough because the Embiid statistical jolt is worth it. Sure. Maybe. Maybe Embiid plays in 60 games? We crave clarity, and we have little here, which tends to hamper decision making.
Now, the 76ers just need to keep the rest of the crew healthy enough to win 45-plus games. Can you stay healthy, Paul George?
Don’t be surprised if … Andre Drummond leads the league in rebounds
OK, perhaps that is a bit too much, but Drummond remains a fit, motivated, rebounding monster, averaging 9 RPG in only 17.1 MPG for the Bulls last season. In his 10 starts for Nikola Vucevic, Drummond averaged 14.1 PPG and 17.9 RPG, along with 1.1 SPG and 1.8 BPG (that matters, too!), looking much like the fellow who fantasy managers loved a while back with the Pistons. Drummond is on the wrong side of 30, but he is showing no signs of it as he eagerly gobbled up rebounds last season and this preseason.
Drummond is going to start at least 30 games this season, probably more. He may average 25-plus MPG overall. Drummond is not much of an offensive option anymore, but he hits his field-goal attempts and does not get to the line enough for his nightmares there to hurt in fantasy. Would you bet against Drummond averaging 13.7 RPG, as Kings star Domantas Sabonis did a season ago? You don’t have to be an Embiid investor to secure Drummond in the latter rounds. A valuable season is pending, and there should be some value even when Embiid suits up.
Don’t be surprised if … James Harden averages 30 PPG
Embiid’s former 76ers teammate is going in the middle of Round 3 in ESPN average live drafts. Yeah, I just don’t see that as remotely lining up with his statistical value. If Harden were to average 16.6 PPG and 8.5 RPG again, like last season when Clippers pals Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to average more than 46 PPG alongside him, then sure, there are better, younger point guards capable of bigger things. Leonard is not playing anytime soon with his knee problems — watch Embiid participate in more games, and I already wrote my meager expectations there — and George is now Embiid’s teammate (and with his own knee injury).
Harden probably isn’t too disappointed by the turn of events because he wants the usage. He wants all the usage. That should not imply that Harden doesn’t want to win basketball games, but he never seems to mind doing so by himself. Just look at what surrounds him for the first few weeks/months of the season. Zubac is a defender, hardly a scorer. Norman Powell can score, but that is about it. Terance Mann should step up. Man, former Rockets lightning rod Kevin Porter Jr. may score 20 PPG on this team, which lacks a frontcourt and may just fire away as many 3-pointers as possible, barely defending, and looking like last season’s high-flying Pacers.
Harden’s most recent season with ridiculous usage was his final season with the Rockets, when he averaged 34.3 PPG in 36.5 MPG, with fewer assists — because he wasn’t passing as much — but a wild 4.4 3-point attempts per game. He did whatever he wanted, and mainly it was bringing the ball up and firing away from deep. OK, so he was 30 then and 34 now. In recent seasons playing alongside superstars, his efficiency has slipped and he seemed unmotivated to get to the free throw line, but Harden shot better than 38% from 3-point range each of the past two seasons, as he played with a relatively stacked cast of teammates.
That is hardly the deal now. I do not think Harden is too old or has slipped too much to carry a top-5 usage rate. He must on this club. Consider a motivated Harden a potential top-10 fantasy option.
Don’t be surprised if … Stephon Castle wins Rookie of the Year
Four players boast higher odds via ESPN BET to win this prestigious award (Zach Edey, Reed Sheppard, Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr), and perhaps all of them are statistically awesome right away, but Castle has looked so mature and ready in preseason action, I think it is worth reaching for him a bit early in drafts. Are we really going to fade Castle because veteran Chris Paul, participator in fewer than 60 games each of the past two seasons and a likely trade asset, is currently in the way?
Paul is an expert distributor and future Hall of Famer, averaging 6.8 APG in 26.4 MPG for the Suns last season, but the Spurs still seem an unlikely West contender, so why give so many minutes to Paul or PG Tre Jones. Better yet, just give Castle the two-guard role (he is 6-foot-6) with Devin Vassell (foot) out. Castle scored 17 points against the Magic in 22 minutes last week, getting to the free throw line 10 times, hitting a few 3-pointers, dishing four assists, and we saw him defend at UConn. He doesn’t need much time to learn at the NBA level. He is ready now, and he deserves big minutes.
