The 2024-25 NBA season tips off on Tuesday night and the defending champion Boston Celtics enter the season as +290 favorites to take home the NBA championship, with the youthful Oklahoma City Thunder (+675), the rebuilt New York Knicks (+700) and the ever-present Philadelphia 76ers (+825) rounding out the teams with better than 10-1 odds to open the season.
While not every team is a contender — there are eight teams with odds of 1000-1 to win it all, every team offers a chance to make a bet. We tasked our NBA betting experts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings to sort through the possibilities and suggest three futures bets to make on every team this season.
Odds are accurate as of time of writing. For latest odds on these and other best, go to ESPN BET.
Over 50.5 regular-season wins (-105): Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving finally clicked last season, leading the Mavericks to the NBA Finals after midseason trades for P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Dereck Lively II’s progression further transformed them into a defensive powerhouse. Now, with the offseason addition of Klay Thompson, their shooting gets a serious boost. Losing Derrick Jones Jr. isn’t ideal, but Naji Marshall is a solid replacement. This team is built to surpass their win total.
Doncic regular-season MVP (+350): Doncic is coming off a stellar season where he helped lead the Mavericks to the NBA Finals, averaging 33.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG and 9.8 APG for the season. Interestingly, Doncic has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting for five straight years, with a career best third-place finish last season. If he continues this momentum, he could finally check MVP off his NBA bucket list.
Doncic first player to score 70+ points in a 2024-25 regular-season game (+1500): It seems inevitable, especially considering Doncic averaged so many points per game last season. He had two standout performances, scoring over 50 points Dec. 25, against the Suns, and just a month later, Jan. 26, he went off for an incredible 73 points against the Hawks. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Doncic gets off to a fast start this season.
Under 50.5 regular-season wins (-105). Betting against Nikola Jokic feels risky, but hear me out. The Nuggets don’t seem like true contenders as they’re currently built. Losing key players like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope hurts, and while Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are still there, the addition of Russell Westbrook doesn’t inspire much confidence. Too much money is tied up in the big three, limiting the front office’s flexibility. Denver needs younger players to step up, and that’s a tough ask in a competitive Western Conference.
Western Conference No. 5 Seed (+800): While Jokic is a three-time MVP who has carried the Nuggets when needed, even he can’t do it all. Murray looked banged up during the Olympics, and with his new contract extension, the pressure on him is immense. I shared my concerns about the Nuggets themselves above, but another issue is the tough competition in the West, where the Kings, Mavericks, Timberwolves and Thunder might be hungrier to win a championship and, in some cases, have better rosters than Denver.
Jokic to average over 9.0 assists per game (-160): Jokic has been a consistent force for the Nuggets. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 9.0 APG and is projected to increase that to 9.2 APG in 35.1 MPG. Jokic is a proven commodity you can rely on who has a history of good health. If the Nuggets want to make another championship run in the West, Jokic needs to shine as a facilitator.
Under 43.5 regular-season wins (-105): Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are all that’s left of the Warriors’ championship core. At 36 and 34, durability is a concern for both. Even with offseason additions like Buddy Hield, Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton, Golden State lacks depth. If Curry or Green miss time, which is likely, the team could struggle. The Warriors may hit some tough stretches this season.
Curry top points scorer on Christmas Day (+1000). NBA basketball on Christmas Day is a tradition like no other. With Klay Thompson gone to Dallas, Curry is the last Splash Brother standing. Even at 36, Golden State will rely on him heavily this season. He’s averaged 32.0 PPG in his past six games against the Lakers and should deliver a vintage performance on the national stage at home.
Warriors to not make the playoffs (-125). The Warriors’ foundation feels shaky as they navigate a youth movement in a stacked Western Conference, and they don’t seem like legitimate contenders. If Green or Curry miss time, the team will really struggle. In my opinion, the play-in tournament is their ceiling, not their floor. It’s a tough spot for a team that was a powerhouse just a few short seasons ago, but this is their new reality.
Over 43.5 regular-season wins (-115). The Rockets don’t rely on just one player, which makes this bet intriguing. With seven former first-round picks and a defense that finished 10th in defensive rating last season, the talent is there. Houston won 41 games last season, so adding three more isn’t a stretch. Yes, the Western Conference is stacked, and some players are still trying to figure out their roles, but I believe head coach Ime Udoka can further position this team for success in his second season in Houston.
Jalen Green to win Most Improved Player (+2500). The No. 2 pick from the 2021 draft has shown flashes of brilliance but struggled with consistency. Under Udoka’s guidance, Green took a big step forward, especially in March, where he averaged 27.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 4.0 APG on 49% shooting. With his skillset and athleticism, he’s a dark horse candidate to make a run at this award as he heads into the final year of his rookie deal.
Reed Sheppard to win Rookie of the Year (+600). Looking for an betting alternative to Zach Edey? Sheppard could be your guy. Despite being expected to come off the bench, we have him projected for the fifth-most minutes per game on the team. The Rockets need a prolific ball-shooter, especially from deep, and Sheppard fits the bill. He also shined in summer league, averaging 20.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG and 5.3 APG.
Under 37.5 regular-season wins (-115). Our projections show that the Clippers will lean heavily on James Harden and Kawhi Leonard this season. However, Harden is showing signs of decline, scoring his fewest points since 2011-12, and his assists, rebounds and three-point shooting have dropped. Leonard’s health is always uncertain, even though he produces when he plays. Losing Paul George in free agency was a huge blow, and with their struggles on defense, this team could be in for a rough season.
To participate in the Western Conference play-in tournament (+185). If Leonard stays healthy for most of the season, this bet could pay off. Despite the Clippers winning their division, the competition in the West is tough; they finished just two wins ahead of the top play-in team. I like the Clippers’ offseason additions, but for this bet to succeed, a healthy Leonard and Harden are essential.
Harden assists per game leader (+900). Despite Harden’s statistical woes last season he’s averaged 9.7 assists per game since 2021-22. The only other players we have projected for more APG than Harden (8.9) is Jokic (9.2), Doncic (9.3), Trae Young (10.7) and Tyrese Haliburton (11.5). With George and Westbrook gone, Harden could see a significant increase in his usage rate.
Under 42.5 regular-season wins (-115): The Lakers are counting on a new coaching staff to turn things around after winning last year’s in-season tournament but falling short in the playoffs. JJ Redick, with no coaching experience, impressed the front office, but the real concern is the health of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Since King James arrived in L.A., the team is 50-72 without James in the lineup and 55-64 without Davis. Absent a third star, it’s tough to see them finishing with 43 wins in the competitive West.
Anthony Davis average over 12.5 rebounds per game (-130): Last season, Davis averaged 12.6 RPG, and we project him at 12.7 RPG this season. The only players with higher averages are Domantas Sabonis (13.6) and Rudy Gobert (12.8). Davis’ athleticism, long wingspan and strong positioning make him a dominant rebounder. He excels at anticipating missed shots and reacting quickly. Notably, he’s the only player on the Lakers projected to average double-digit rebounds.
LeBron James to average over 8.0 assists per game (-115): Last season, James averaged 8.3 APG and is projected for a similar per game average this year. He’s evolved as a better facilitator over the years which has allowed his basketball IQ and experience to come through. By creating space and drawing defenders, he opens up opportunities for his teammates. With the Lakers bringing back nearly the same roster, there’s every reason to believe James will maintain the 8.0 APG he’s had since arriving in Los Angeles.
Over 46.5 regular-season wins (-105): The Grizzlies won 27 games last season, despite getting only nine games from Ja Morant. Memphis thrives when Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane are on the court together, so if Morant plays 50-plus games, they should easily surpass that total. Marcus Smart’s leadership and defense are also a boost for this squad, while ninth overall pick Zach Edey brings size and skill, after dominating in college at Purdue. The Grizzlies are a dangerous team this season.
To participate in the Western Conference play-in tournament (+170): The Grizzlies will be a different team with Morant, Jackson and Bane back in the mix. Edey is set to wreak havoc on opponents down low. However, the tough Western Conference makes it challenging to see them finishing ahead of the Thunder, Timberwolves, Kings, Mavericks and Nuggets. I expect them to join the Suns, Spurs, and Lakers in the play-in tournament.
Edey to win Rookie of the Year (+300): This award often goes to players on rebuilding teams who can command a high usage rate, allowing them to rack up stats. Just look at Victor Wembanyama last season and Paolo Banchero the year before; both won under similar circumstances. Edey finds himself in a great position with the Grizzlies this year. We project him to average 14.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 1.6 BPG. While these numbers may not be flashy, they should be enough for Edey to win the award.
Under 52.5 regular-season wins (-120): Anthony Edwards has shown he’s one of the league’s top players, and the scary part is he’s only 23 and still hasn’t hit his prime. Losing Karl-Anthony Towns, though, is a big blow for the Timberwolves. Even with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo coming in, my biggest concern is how long it’ll take for Edwards and Rudy Gobert to mesh with Randle. That adjustment period could cost the Timberwolves some wins early in the season.
Edwards regular-season MVP (+1000): Edwards is a legitimate contender for the award, and here’s why. He averaged 25.9 PPG, 5.1 APG and 5.4 RPG last season, with a usage rate of 32.2% (fifth highest in the league). Based on our projections, that could rise to nearly 35% this year. Edwards is also a strong defender and has stayed relatively healthy, averaging 75.5 games per season. He’s a great value priced outside the top 5 favorites to win the award.
Gobert over 12.5 average rebounds per game (-115): Gobert’s rebounding numbers dipped a bit over the past two seasons while sharing the paint with Towns but he still managed 12.2 RPG during his time with the Timberwolves. Now, if we look back at his 2021-2022 season with the Jazz, he was pulling down 14.7 RPG. That’s the kind of production I think we could see from Gobert this season. We have him projected at 13.0 RPG.
Over 45.5 regular-season wins (-125): Brandon Ingram’s presence still looms large, but I’m optimistic about the Pelicans after trading for Dejounte Murray. He pairs nicely with C.J. McCollum in the backcourt. Zion Williamson’s health remains a concern, and his availability could swing their win total. The departure of Jonas Valanciunas leaves a gap at center, but this roster is strong enough to finish fifth or sixth in the West, and their ceiling is even higher if Williamson stays healthy.
To win 50+ regular-season games (+200): The Pelicans won 49 games last year, so it’s not far-fetched to think they could hit 50 or more. It really depends on Williamson’s health. If the Pelicans were to trade Ingram, they’d likely prioritize getting a center in return. This team can compete with anyone, so clearing 50 wins shouldn’t be surprising-especially with Murray now in the mix.
Willie Green to win Coach of the Year (+1600): Green enters his fourth season as the Pelicans’ coach with high expectations. He’s had to overcome injuries to key players such as Williamson and Ingram, but Green still led New Orleans to three consecutive winning seasons. The Pelicans continue to be positioned for success with the addition of Murray and a focus on defense. Green’s composed demeanor rarely draws attention from the media, but the team’s record could catch the attention of voters and the three most recent winners of the award have been first-timers.
Thunder over 56.5 wins (-125): I’m usually hesitant to take overs this high, even with a team like the Thunder, who won 57 games last season and had a deep playoff run. However, Oklahoma City got better this summer, which is rare for a No. 1 seed. They added Alex Caruso to the backcourt and center Isaiah Hartenstein to improve defensively. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort, they have a real shot at the league’s best regular-season record.
Holmgren blocks per game leader (+1500): Holmgren had one of the most impressive rookie seasons I’ve seen in a while. His impact on both ends of the court has already established him as one of the league’s top young big men. While most bettors think of Wembanyama for blocks, we have Holmgren projected for 2.5 BPG, the second most among players logging 25+ minutes per game. He’s is a nice value at these odds and could surpass that projection while alternating between power forward and center.
Gilgeous-Alexander to score 50+ points in any 2024-25 regular-season game (+130): Only Doncic (33.1) and Joel Embiid (34.1) are projected to have a higher PPG than Gilgeous-Alexander (32.0). His career high is 44 points, but he had six games with 40-plus last season. As the Thunder’s top offensive playmaker, there’s a strong chance he finally hits 50 this year.
Over 47.5 regular-season wins (-140): Mike Budenholzer is a better coach than Frank Vogel. He’s made a name for himself by turning teams around, crafting top-five offenses for the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks. The Suns addressed their point guard issues by adding Tyus Jones and Monte Morris this offseason. However, they must improve their defense, and Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal need to be committed to it. Their defensive performance and the health of their big three will determine their success in a tough Western Conference.
Budenholzer to win Coach of the Year (+1800): This is my favorite value bet for the award. The setup feels a lot like 2018-19, when Budenholzer led the Bucks to a 60-22 record, the top seed in the East and won the award. I’m not saying the Suns will be No. 1 in the West, but with Booker, Durant and Beal, I see them improving on last season’s record. Budenholzer would get credit for Phoenix’s turnaround which in turn would lead to Coach of the Year votes.
Western Conference No. 2 seed (+1600): The Suns addressed nearly all their offseason issues. They needed a point guard so Booker and Beal could play off the ball, so they added Jones. Morris adds depth at point guard, and Mason Plumlee solves the backup center problem. I also like what rookie Ryan Dunn brings defensively. The main concern? Keeping Booker, Durant and Beal healthy for the playoffs. But Budenholzer will do everything to ensure they’re ready when it matters most which could lead to some DNPs.
Under 21.5 regular-season wins (-115): The Trail Blazers are in the middle of a rebuild, but their roster sends mixed signals. I’m puzzled as to why Jerami Grant remains on this team. Even so, they have little incentive to win a lot of games. First, their draft capital benefits from missing the playoffs. Second, the 2025 draft class, beyond Cooper Flagg, looks strong. Portland will likely focus on its future, not on piling up victories this season.
Least regular-season wins (+350): I sound like a broken record, but the West is stacked, and the Trail Blazers are the weakest team in this tough conference. They have the longest odds to win the Finals or even their conference, tied with the Nets, Hornets, Bulls, Pistons, Raptors and Wizards. With the Blazers still in rebuild mode, it’s tough to see them climbing out of this abyss this season.
Anfernee Simons to win Most Improved Player (+5000): This award can be tough to predict since there aren’t strict criteria. However, Simons, only 25, is a player the Trail Blazers want to build around. While health is a concern — he missed significant time last season — he’s shown flashes of brilliance, like when he averaged 28.0 PPG and 5.4 APG last December. If he stays healthy and continues to produce, Simons could be a strong contender for this award.
Under 47.5 regular-season wins (-125): The Kings added DeMar DeRozan this summer, but my concern is still their defense. Sure, they ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating after the All-Star break, but I’m not convinced that carries over. Outside of Keon Ellis and Keegan Murray, the Kings lack strong defenders. Sacramento’s poor defense will keep other teams in the game, and that could cost them wins.
Domantas Sabonis rebounds per game leader (+200): Sabonis led the NBA last season with 13.7 RPG while averaging 35.7 minutes per game. He’s projected for similar numbers this season. It should also be noted that the Kings are emphasizing offensive rebounding after ranking middle-of-the-pack last season. Sabonis’ durability and consistent presence on the court position him well to maintain or even improve his average this season.
Pacific Division result first Sacramento Kings/second Phoenix Suns (+650): It might seem odd to rank the Kings over teams that roster Curry or James, but here’s why: Domantas and De’Aaron Fox are a younger, more durable duo, and they’ve added DeRozan. The Suns are second for me; they’ve made solid moves, but with Durant, Booker or Beal potentially missing games — as well as defensive concerns — the Kings feel like a safer bet to win the Pacific even if they come in just under 47.5 wins.
Victor Wembanyama to record 1+ blocks in every 2024-25 NBA regular-season game (minimum 40 games played) (+2000): Wembanyama almost accomplished the feat in his rookie season as he averaged an impressive 3.6 BPG in 29.6 MPG over 71 games, steadily improving his average from the start of the season through to the end. This year, we project Wemby to lead the league with 4.3 BPG in 33.4 MPG. With those numbers in mind, this bet is worth risking a few units.
Wembanyama to record 45+ double doubles in the 2024-25 NBA regular season (-115): Wembanyama had an impressive rookie season, averaging 21.4 PPG while shooting 46.5% from the field. He really improved offensively as the season went on, especially after the Spurs moved him from power forward to center. He also grabbed 10.6 RPG. With Chris Paul joining the team, Wemby is poised for even easier scoring opportunities. Expect him to be a double-double machine this season.
Over 36.5 wins (-130): The Spurs made some solid offseason moves, adding Harrison Barnes and Paul to join Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson. Wembanyama also had the chance to refine his game this offseason, showcasing his skills with a standout performance at the Olympics in Paris. This Spurs team has the talent to surpass expectations. Plus, having one of the greatest coaches in NBA history, Gregg Popovich, definitely gives them an edge. This win total feels too low for a team poised for growth.
Jazz over 27.5 regular-season wins: The Jazz have started off the past two seasons strong, however, Utah’s front office orchestrated trades which tanked the team’s record. Although the Jazz earned the No. 9 pick in 2023 and the No. 10 pick in 2024, they are focused on rebuilding and securing a top-five pick for the first time in more than a decade by any means necessary. Even if that means having Lauri Markkanen play fewer than 15 games during the months of March and April like Utah did last season. However, I see them finishing slightly over the total.
To win 30+ regular-season games (+140): The Jazz lack tradable assets compared to previous seasons. Markkanen just signed an extension, and John Collins’ contract makes it tough for potential suitors. While they’re eyeing Flagg in the 2025 NBA draft, I see a scenario where they can sneak past the 30-win mark.
Jordan Clarkson to win Sixth Man of the Year (+2000): Clarkson took home the award in 2021 and has averaged 19.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG and 4.7 APG over the past two seasons. With a projected 30.9 MPG, he’s expected to play a key role in the Jazz’s rotation. While injuries are a concern, placing a few units on Clarkson as a longshot isn’t a bad idea.
Trae Young assists per game leader (+130) and Young over 10.5 assists per game (-140): Young has increased his assists per game total every season of his NBA career, from 8.1 APG as a rookie up to 10.8 APG in his recently concluded sixth season. That pattern would suggest that this season is likely to see him break 11 APG for the first time, but it goes further. In the past two seasons, Young has shared the backcourt with another All Star-caliber point guard in Dejounte Murray. Murray is no longer on the Hawks, which means more usage for Young and likely higher assist totals. In the past three seasons, the NBA leader in assists notched 10.9 APG, 10.7 APG and 10.8 APG, and Young’s trajectory would suggest he has a good chance to surpass those numbers this season.
Jalen Johnson to win Most Improved Player (+1200): Johnson took a huge leap last season, from a 15 minute-per game sophomore that averaged 5.6 PPG to a full-time starter averaging 16.0 PPG and 8.7 RPG in his third season. Often, the winner of the Most Improved Player has that type of leap the season before they win, then makes another leap to near All-Star level. Johnson has the ability to do that. He has legitimate 20-10-5 upside, and with Murray gone, he should get more usage and opportunity to post those types of numbers. And if he does, he’ll be a frontrunner for MIP.
Bogdan Bogdanovic to average over three 3-pointers per game (-115): Bogdanovic has averaged 2.9 3PG over the past four seasons, primarily as a sixth man playing just under 30 MPG. With Murray gone, Bogdanovic has a legitimate chance to hold the starting shooting guard slot all season. Over those same four seasons, Bogdanovic has averaged 3.6 3PM per 36 minutes. If he earns starter minutes, closer to 36 MPG, his 3PG should approach his per-36 averages.
Celtics to win Atlantic Division (-145): The Celtics were the dominant team in the NBA last season, winning the East by a whopping 14 games in the regular season before going through the playoffs with a 16 and 3 record. Despite teams like the Knicks and 76ers making great offseason moves, the gap between the Celtics and them was so large that Boston should still be huge favorites to win the Atlantic. Those moves from their competitors got the odds to move much closer to even money, making the Celtics excellent value here.
Jayson Tatum to win Finals MVP (+525): The Celtics are +300 to win the championship, but Tatum has almost twice as much juice to win Finals MVP because reigning Finals MVP Jaylen Brown could split the vote. But Brown won the East and Finals MVPs last season despite Tatum averaging more points, rebounds and assists in both series. If the Celtics win again, the sentiment for Tatum to get his would be overwhelming, so his extra juice over the Celtics’ title odds are all value.
Tatum to be named All-NBA first team (+125): Tatum has finished All-NBA first team in three straight seasons and is generally recognized as the best small forward in the league. The Celtics have an excellent chance to have the best record in the NBA for the second straight season, giving Tatum the strong “best player on best team” argument. It might not be enough for Tatum to win an MVP, but it would likely be enough for his fourth straight All-NBA first team appearance.
Over 18.5 wins (-125): It is difficult to win fewer than 19 games in today’s NBA. Last season two teams finished with fewer; two seasons ago it was one team; three seasons ago no team finished with under 19 wins. So, over three seasons, an average of one NBA team per year finishes with that few wins. According to BPI, the Nets enter the season fourth from the bottom of the league. But the Nets’ BPI of -2.8 is significantly better than the -7.5 of the last-place Wizards. Moral to the story: The Nets are facing the lottery, but they still have an interesting mix of promising young talent and veteran contributors that make it unlikely they win fewer than 19 games.
Cam Thomas points per game leader (+3000)
Thomas is one of the purest scorers in the NBA, even at only 23 years old. Two seasons ago, Thomas was a deep bench player for much of the season, but in the four games he played between 30 and 39 minutes he averaged 31.8 PPG and in the one game he played more than 40 minutes he scored 46. Last season, largely as a borderline starter/sixth man, in 38 games between 30 and 39 minutes played Thomas averaged 25.3 PPG, but in the four games he played more than 40 minutes he averaged 37.0 PPG. This season, with Mikal Bridges traded away, Thomas is expected to be the man. If he plays major minutes, he’s going to produce some monster scoring efforts. And at 30-1, there is a lot of juice on him producing those big efforts on a regular basis.
Nic Claxton blocks per game leader (+4000): Claxton has been a full-time starter for two seasons now, and has finished second and tied for sixth in blocked shots with more than two full blocks while playing less than 30 minutes per game in both seasons. Thomas is only 25 years old, still approaching his peak, and though Wembanyama is a worthy favorite to lead the league in blocks, 40-1 odds is good longshot value for a player with Claxton’s history. And if Claxton ramps up his minutes slightly, he has three-blocks-per-game upside.
LaMelo Ball 3-pointers made per game leader (+3300): The past three seasons, the league leader in 3-pointers per game have made 4.8, 4.4 and 4.5 treys per game. Two seasons ago, in an injury-shortened campaign, Ball averaged 4.0 3PG. He has the ultimate green light for the Hornets, and this season he has scoring threat teammates that should draw enough defensive attention to let him get plenty of good lucks. Odds of 33-1 are a lot of juice for a player that has already shown he can make 3-pointers with enough volume to be in the hunt.
Over 30.5 season wins (-105): Three seasons ago, the Hornets won 43 games with a squad led by Miles Bridges, sophomore LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier. Ball missed the majority of the two seasons since with ankle injuries, Bridges missed the entirety of the 2022-23 season due to off-court issues and Rozier was traded last season. But Bridges is back and Ball is presumed healthy, and last season’s second overall pick Brandon Miller was third in the Rookie of the Year race. With the three of them as the nucleus, the Hornets have the talent to replicate or even surpass their 2021-22 campaign.
To play in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament (+125): Over the past three seasons, nine of the 12 teams to finish between seventh and tenth in the Eastern Conference have finished with between 39 and 44 wins. The Hornets, if they get healthy seasons from their best players, have a solid chance to replicate the 43-win team they were the last time Ball was healthy three seasons ago. This would put them right in the range to be a play-in team.
Bulls under 28.5 wins (-125). The Bulls are a team in limbo, stuck between where they’ve been the past couple of seasons — a 39-40 win play-in team — and the full rebuild that seems to be on the horizon. They lost veterans DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso this offseason, bringing in young players like Josh Giddey and draft pick Matas Buzelis and re-signing Patrick Williams to join Coby White as part of the new core. Veterans Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic are still on the team, but trade rumors continue to swirl, and Lonzo Ball is making his way back from injury. The team currently has the talent to win more than 28 games, but fit and focus suggest to me they’ll start to lose, trade their vets and come in under the mark. Also, of note, they owe the Spurs a top-10 protected 2025 draft pick, so it might behoove them to lose enough games to not convey the pick.
Buzelis Rookie of the Year (+1000): In a season with no clear Rookie of the Year frontrunner, Buzelis has a legitimate chance to compete for the award. He is the exciting young rookie on a Bulls team moving into a rebuild, and he could earn starter minutes sooner rather than later. Buzelis has a pedigree for success, with both parents and two grandparents professional athletes in Lithuania, and he’s a former McDonald’s All-American and Gatorade Player of the Year (2022) who has played with the G League Ignite to learn NBA rules. A 6-10 do-everything combo-forward, if Buzelis gets the minutes he has a better than 10-1 chance to move to the top of this rookie class.
Giddey Most Improved Player (+1800): Giddey has a big opportunity with the Bulls this season, after falling out of the rotation with the Thunder last season. Giddey was the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft and has shown flashes of excellence with his unique skill set. At 6-foot-8, he has the size of a forward but can operate as the point guard. His biggest issue has been shooting, but he has improved to more respectability with each season. As a sophomore, Giddey averaged around 17 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists for the Thunder, but his numbers dropped dramatically last season. But Giddey could get the keys to the Bulls, and if he’s able to return to his nightly near triple-double numbers he has a good chance to move to the top of the MIP race.
Evan Mobley to win Most Improved Player (+1400): Mobley is 23 years old, in his fourth NBA season, and seems ripe for a big bounce/leap season. After finishing second in the Rookie of the Year vote, as a sophomore, Mobley played 79 games and was named to the All-Defensive first first team while finishing third in the Defensive Player of the Year vote. Last season, injuries kept Mobley out of 32 games and limited him in the games he did play. Even still, he notched career-bests of 58% from the field, 9.4 RPG, 37.3 3P% and 3.2 APG. This season, fresh off signing a five-year max rookie contract extension in the offseason, I look for Mobley to get back to All-Defense level while simultaneously edging up toward 20 PPG. That combo would put him firmly in the Most Improved Player race, at relatively long-shot odds.
Donovan Mitchell over 26.5 PPG (-150): In his two seasons with the Cavaliers, Mitchell has averaged 28.3 PPG and 26.6 PPG. After signing a contract extension this summer, Mitchell is firmly entrenched as the Cavs’ franchise player and offensive centerpiece. He will be playing with the same core nucleus of players this season he has played with since he’s been in Cleveland, and at age 28 he is right in the middle of his prime-peak seasons. All told, Mitchell has a good chance to post the best scoring average of his career this season and score over 26.5 PPG for the third straight season.
Cavaliers over 48.5 season wins (-125): The Cavaliers were beset by injuries to their best players last season, with each of Mitchell, Darius Garland and Mobley missing at least 25 games. Despite the injuries, they still managed 48 wins and the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. The season before, the first of the current Mitchell era, the Cavs won 51 games. Entering this season, with their players healthy and also more experienced, the Cavaliers have a good chance to win more than 50 games again.
Cade Cunningham Most Improved Player (+2500): The past three seasons, the Most Improved Player has gone to relatively young players, averaging 23 years old, who had already produced impressive seasons in the past but made the leap to make their first NBA All-Star team. Cunningham is on that same trajectory, at 23 years old coming off his best statistical season with numbers that could make him an All Star with even the slightest improvement. Cunningham made an in-season leap as a scorer last season, from 21.9 PPG before the All-Star break to 24.5 PPG after. If he maintains or improves that scoring level this season, he could continue the tradition of MIP in a first All-Star campaign. And the 25-1 odds make him an intriguing long-shot futures candidate.
Jalen Duren to average over 11.5 rebounds per game (-105) and rebounds per game leader (+1000). Duren enters his third season as an extremely young player, still only 20 years old, but already established as the full-time starter at center for the Pistons. As a sophomore that began that season as a teenager, Duren finished fifth in the NBA with 11.6 RPG. In 34 games where he played at least 30 minutes, Duren averaged 13.4 RPG in 32.8 MPG. Last season, Sabonis led the NBA with 13.7 RPG. Duren clearly has that level of demonstrated rebound ability, and with his age and athleticism quotient his upside is pretty much off the charts.
Pacers over 47.5 season wins (-105): The Pacers finished last season with a 47-35 record that was good for the seventh seed, but was tied with the fifth and sixth seed before tie-breaker. But that was with superstar Tyrese Haliburton injuring his hamstring just before the halfway mark in the season and either sitting or playing at a lower level upon his return. In his first 31 healthy games, Haliburton led the Pacers to a 23-8 record that is 51-win pace for the season. And this was before they traded for All-Star forward Pascal Siakam, who raises their ceiling. If their stars stay healthy, the Pacers are a good bet to race past 47.5 wins.
Haliburton to average over 10.5 assists per game (-130) and Haliburton assists per game leader (+200): Through his first 31 games last season, including the in-season tournament, Haliburton was dishing 12.8 APG. After that, he injured his hamstring and was visibly not himself for the rest of the season. But after taking the time to get healthy this offseason, Haliburton could be off to the races to lead the league in assists for the second straight season. But more at the 12.8ish APG pace he began last season with than the 10.9 APG he ended up averaging with all the attenuated games factored in.
Kel’el Ware to win Rookie of the Year (+2500): Unlike last season, when Wemby-mania swept the NBA even before draft night, there is no one standout Rookie of the Year favorite this time around. Ware has had a strong offseason compared to his rookie peers, being named to the NBA 2K25 Summer League first team while helping lead the Heat to the championship in Las Vegas. Ware has also played well in the preseason, showing he can score and blocked shots at the NBA level. If he is able to share the court with Bam Adebayo, with the latter demonstrating the shooting ability to play some four, Ware could get enough minutes to seriously challenge for this year’s award but from longshot odds.
Adebayo to win Defensive Player of the Year (+1000): Adebayo has finished top-5 in the Defensive Player of the Year vote for five straight seasons, culminating in last season’s third-place finish and spot on the All Defensive first team. Adebayo is just entering his prime-peak years at age 27, and will be the defensive anchor for what could be an improved Heat team this season. If they can remain largely healthy, with sophomore Jaime Jaquez Jr. taking a step forward, this is arguably the most talented Heat team in years. Another strong Adebayo defensive effort, on a potential winning team, would give him better than the stated 10-1 odds to finally win the award this season.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. to win 6th Man of the Year (+1000): Last season, Jaquez finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year vote and ninth in the Sixth Man of the Year vote. Naz Reid won the 6MoY award with averages of 13.5 PPG and 5.2 RPG, while Malik Monk finished second with 15.4 PPG and 5.1 APG. Even as a rookie last season, Jaquez demonstrated the sustained ability to produce at those levels when given the opportunity. In 34 games where Jaquez played at least 30 minutes, less than half of which he started (15 starts), Jaquez averaged 26.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 3.4 APG. Jaquez should have a bigger role as a sophomore, and has better than 10-to-1 odds to build on that floor and produce even better 6MoY caliber numbers this time around.
Over 50.5 wins (-105): The Bucks won only 49 games last season, but that broke a streak of five-straight 51-plus win campaigns (prorated for the 2020-21 shortened season). Last season was full of complications for the Bucks, including trying to incorporate Damian Lillard into the mix, firing their head coach while the team was the second seed in the conference, and continued injury concerns for Khris Middleton. Just a bit more stability, with Lillard already having had a full season to acclimate and Doc Rivers already established as the coach, and the Bucks can win more than 50.5 games for the sixth time in seventh seasons.
Bobby Portis to win Sixth Man of the Year (+1800): Portis is firmly established as the Bucks’ sixth man, and in fact has finished third in each of the last two 6MoY votes. Last year’s vote was wide open all season, with new favorites rising and falling as the season went along. Portis’ main numbers (13.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG) compared very favorably with winner Naz Reid (13.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG), so I think he has a significantly better than 18-to-1 chance to take the relatively small step forward to win this season’s award.
Giannis Antetokounmpo to be named All-NBA 1st Team (-150): Antetokounmpo has been named All-NBA first team and finished top-4 in the MVP vote in six straight seasons. Antetokounmpo is widely considered the best power forward in basketball, and he is still squarely in his prime at 29 years old. He is also coming off, arguably, his best statistical season where averaged more than 30 PPG on greater than 61% shooting from the field. Barring injury, Antetokounmpo is more than a -150 bet to earn first team honors for the seventh straight year.
Over 53.5 wins (-125): The Knicks won 50 games last season to finish second in the Eastern Conference. That success came with starting big men Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson missing a combined 87 games, and with OG Anunoby playing only 23 games with the Knicks after his midseason trade from the Raptors. This offseason, the Knicks made a series of shrewd moves that included trading for an All-Star center in Karl-Anthony Towns, and for Mikal Bridges as well. On paper, these Knicks are significantly stronger than last season’s. Health-willing, and particularly if KAT and Jalen Brunson mesh to potential in the pick-and-roll/pop game, the Knicks could win more than 55 games this season.
Brunson to average over 26.5 points per game (-125): Brunson averaged 28.7 PPG last season, comfortably over the 26.5 PPG threshold. He was the clear focal point of the Knicks’ offensive unit, working largely off the dribble with high usage. Despite their big trades this offseason, the Knicks’ offensive lineup doesn’t change largely in scoring and playmaking caliber. If anything, with Donte DiVincenzo no longer in town, Brunson may have to create even more offense this season than last.
Tom Thibodeau to win Coach of the Year (+700): The Knicks look poised to significantly improve their regular-season record and, if they get into the race for the top seed in the East it could lead to awards for their guys. And if so, Thibodeau may be the most likely to get an award. Thibs has won this award a couple times and is widely considered a good coach who gets the most out of his teams. In fact, he sometimes gets criticized for pushing his teams too hard in the regular season. But if the outcome of Thibs’ pushing leads to a 55-win season, Thibs would be really in the hunt to win again this season.
Over 47.5 wins (-115): The Magic are a young team on the rise, and their ascension corresponds to the development of their two young stars, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. In Wagner’s rookie season they went 22-60, in Banchero’s rookie season they improved to 34-48 and last season they were up to 47-35. Banchero followed up his Rookie of the Year first season with an All-Star nod in season two. With veteran NBA champion Kentavious Caldwell-Pope added this offseason to bring a winning culture to the backcourt and locker room, the Magic are poised to take another significant step forward this season.
Magic to win Southeast Division (-140): The Magic were in the lottery two seasons ago, but last season they improved by 13 games to win the Southeast Division by a game over the Heat. These same two teams are favored again this season, but while the Heat’s best player, Jimmy Butler, is moving toward the end of his career, Banchero is still very much on the rise in his third season. The Banchero/Franz Wagner nucleus should continue to improve, which gives the Magic more upside than the Heat and helps their chances to win a second straight division title.
Wagner to win Most Improved Player (+3000): Wagner is the type of player that wins the MIP award: 23 years old, in his fourth season, having shown steady progress in his first few seasons with near-star numbers the previous season. If Wagner can get his scoring average up over 20 PPG and play with impact on a winning Magic team, he’ll be right there in the mix for this award down the stretch.
Over 51.5 wins (-115): The 76ers won 54 games in 2022-23 and were 31-8 (65-win pace) in the 39 games Joel Embiid played last season. They fell off the table when Embiid was out, going 16-27 to finish the season with only 47 wins. They revamped their team this offseason, bringing in Paul George to be a third pillar of the team, at least in part to give redundancy in case of injury this season. The 76ers currently rank third on the Basketball Power Index (BPI) score, indicating they are expected to be one of the best teams in the league. So, on paper, the team projects to be better both with and without Embiid. Barring major injury to multiple key players, the 76ers should win more at least 52 games.
Embiid to average over 32.5 Points per game (+125): Embiid has been the dominant scorer on the 76ers for years, led the NBA in scoring with averages over 30 PPG in both 2021-22 and 2022-23, then increased his scoring average to a career-high 34.7 PPG last season. The 76ers have rebuilt their team around Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, and Maxey has developed into a volume scorer in his own right, but I think the offense still runs through the big man. George is a versatile enough star to contribute majorly in ways outside of scoring, and the rest of the team is filled with role players. There should still be plenty of shots for the 76ers’ best players, and Embiid gets to eat first, so I think he surpasses 32.5 PPG for the third straight season.
Embiid to win MVP (+1800): This is an interesting “long shot” bet, because Embiid won the MVP in 2022-23, and was the frontrunner to repeat as MVP the next season before his injury. If healthy and available for the NBA-mandated 65 games, Embiid would likely be an MVP frontrunner. But, Embiid has only played 65 games twice in the 10 seasons since he was drafted, explaining the long-shot odds. Nevertheless, at 18-to-1, he is worth a flier because the bet is more similar to “will he play 65 games” than “is he worthy to be MVP”.
Raptors over 29.5 wins (-125): The Raptors are rebuilding, having traded away their veteran stars in the last year-plus and building around younger players. But while Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are young, they have all been in the league for several seasons and have moved beyond “learning the league” to instead “learning to win as focal points”. Therefore, the Raptors can rebuild while still having aspirations to win some games. Per BPI, the Raptors project to 33.9 wins on the season, comfortably over the 29.5 win threshold.
Barnes to win Most Improved Player (+2500): The Most Improved Player award, in recent seasons, has typically gone to a player in their early-mid 20s with three-to-four seasons under their belt that start making the star-leap the season before they actually win the award. Barnes fits that description to a tee, entering his fourth season at age 23. Barnes also started breaking out last season, increasing his numbers across the board while earning his first All-Star nod. With the Raptors having traded away Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, Barnes is the unquestioned centerpiece and will have the opportunity to put up superstar numbers this season.
Under 20.5 wins (-115): While there are few teams that win fewer than 20.5 games in today’s NBA — an average of one team per over the past three seasons — the Wizards fit the profile of a team that may do so. They won only 15 games last season, the first year of their rebuild, but they don’t appear to have a clear plan for how to map their way out of the rebuild. The team is an eclectic mix of veteran scorers, young inconsistent scorers and pure rookies that doesn’t seem likely to lead to wins.
Alex Sarr to win Rookie of the Year (+900): Sarr was the second overall pick in this year’s NBA draft, and many analysts rated him the most talented player in the class. On the other hand, Sarr is also more raw and requires development to reach the potential people see in him. In the Vegas summerleague, he only made about one-in-five of his field goal attempts and could disappear for long stretches of time. But, there are no clear Rookie of the Year frontrunners this season, and Sarr should get plenty of playing time as the starter on a rebuilding Wizards squad. At 9-1, he has some value in the RoTY race.
