Ask any NBA team executive or player agent, “What contract is the toughest to negotiate?” and both will point to rookie extensions.
These deals differ from free agency, where the market plays a role in how much teams are willing to offer; rookie extensions can only go up to five years for $224 million. And unlike in free agency, when an opposing team can sign a player with cap space, the only deadline a team faces is 6 p.m. ET on Monday.
Factor in a 2025 offseason where only the Brooklyn Nets are projected to have more than $30 million in cap space, and there’s a reason a growing number of young players are willing to lock in guaranteed money in an extension amid the heavy restrictions facing teams via the new apron rules in the collective bargaining agreement.
Seven players signed rookie extensions a year ago at the deadline. Out of those players, only Jaden McDaniels had an initial salary greater than $20 million. This year, 20 players are currently eligible to extend by the Oct. 21 deadline. Four players from the 2021 draft — Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner — have signed rookie extensions. Those four signed in the first week of free agency for the maximum.
With the Oct. 21 deadline approaching, we examine 10 key eligible players on rookie deals — explaining why an extension will or won’t happen — and propose a suitable offer for each one.
We then detail where four notable veterans — Kevin Durant, Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson Jr. and De’Aaron Fox — stand on extensions.
And lastly, we check on nine teams facing a key roster decision ahead of Monday’s deadline to trim rosters to 15 players.
Jump to a section:
Major rookie extensions
Veteran deals to watch
Nine teams with key roster choices
Why an extension could get done: There are three reasons:
Why it might not: Both sides might not be willing to sacrifice. Going off 2023-24 alone, Johnson — who joined Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama, Bam Adebayo, Luka Doncic, Evan Mobley, Ben Simmons, Alperen Sengun and Josh Giddey as the only players over the past 10 years to average 17 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists per 75 possessions through their first three seasons — should have received the maximum five-year, $224 million extension at the start of free agency.
The only players on that list who did not receive a max extension were Giddey and Sengun, both of whom are eligible now. Last season, Johnson nearly tripled his points per game to 16.0, the second-largest jump among those to play at least 50 games in each season, trailing only the Nets’ Cam Thomas. In the 26 games Johnson missed last season, Atlanta went 9-17.
The counterargument: The 2023-24 season was too small of a sample to reward Johnson with a lucrative contract. In his first two seasons in Atlanta, Johnson averaged 2.4 and 5.6 points, respectively. He also averaged just 49 games in his first three seasons.
What I would offer: Five years, $148 million. The first year of the extension starts at $33.7 million, and it declines to $25.5 million in the last season. Not including the 2025 unprotected first from the Los Angeles Lakers, Atlanta is $16 million below the luxury tax after the extension. The new contract is a combination of three recent contracts: Jalen McDaniels, Kyle Kuzma and Jerami Grant.
Why an extension could get done: Thomas would need to take guaranteed money now but at a significant discount on what he could earn next offseason. Thomas has earned $10.5 million in salary over his first four seasons. Would he jump on the opportunity to earn $14 million in the first year of an extension?
Why it might not: Brooklyn’s future finances could prevent an extension by Oct. 21. Because Thomas was drafted late in the first round, his free agent hold is $12.1 million. Signing him to a new contract greater than that would affect a 2025 offseason, when the Nets project to have a league-leading $60 million in cap space. Another reason: Thomas is willing to bet on himself. On a rebuilding team with limited scoring options, expect Thomas to be among the leaders this season in points per game. Last season, Thomas recorded 15 30-point games, second most in franchise history by a player 22 years old or younger.
What I would offer: It is important to look at what an extension could look like based on Brooklyn’s budget and also if there were no salary cap apron or cap hold restrictions. A four-year, $62 million extension that starts at $14 million has Brooklyn losing only $2 million in cap space. Thomas should look at the four-year, $100 million contract that Anfernee Simons signed with Portland in 2022 — which would be equivalent to a four-year, $125 million deal under a projected $154.5 million salary cap in 2025-26.
Why an extension could get done: In more than four years with the franchise, Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas has never signed a player to a rookie extension. But the Bulls paid a significant price to acquire Giddey, trading two-time All-NBA defender Alex Caruso right before the start of free agency. “He’s still 21,” Karnisovas said. “His production was really good the last three years. He has room for growth, and I think coming here to Chicago he’s going to be able to demonstrate more playmaking and he’ll make everyone else better.”
Last season, Oklahoma City shot 54% directly off Giddey’s passes, second best in the league among players with at least 500 assist opportunities, per Second Spectrum. And Giddey’s 11 career triple-doubles are the fourth most by a player 21 or younger, trailing only Luka Doncic, Magic Johnson and Ben Simmons.
Why it might not: Do Giddey’s struggles on defense and perimeter shooting with Oklahoma City factor into Chicago’s unwillingness to commit? In the second round of the playoffs, Dallas was 7-for-7 from the field in Game 2 when Giddey was the primary defender. Prior to Game 6, the Mavericks shot 60% (15-for-25) when Giddey was the primary defender. Offensively, Giddey struggles from the perimeter (he shot 21.4% from 3), which allowed Dallas to use centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II to guard him. Because Giddey has a $25 million free agent hold, the Bulls are over the salary cap next offseason despite just $134 million in salary.
What I would offer: Five years, $128 million. The extension starts at the average salary for a starting point guard ($29 million) and decreases to $22 million in the last season. The extension also has $14 million in unlikely bonuses.
Why an extension could get done: Moody has produced when given minutes. Moody started nine games in 2023-24, averaging 12.6 points and shooting 39.5% on 3-pointers. The Warriors, meanwhile, were 28-18 when Moody played more than 15 minutes. On Friday, Moody started and scored 23 points in 25 minutes in a preseason win against Sacramento.
Why it might not: Moody continues to be the odd man out in the crowded Golden State backcourt. “That will be something we’ll look at,” Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. said in the offseason. “I think it’s really important coming into Year 4 for him that there is some reasonable playing time available for him.”
Last season, Moody was inactive for nine games, a DNP in seven and played fewer than 15 minutes in 21 games. The Warriors lost Klay Thompson but added De’Anthony Melton and Buddy Hield in free agency, and Golden State has All-Rookie guard Brandin Podziemski on an inexpensive contract.
What I would offer: Four years, $50 million. The $11 million salary in the first year is below the non-tax midlevel exception. There is no six-month restriction because of the extension, and Moody would still be eligible to be traded this season.
Why an extension could get done: If Kuminga evaluates the market and decides there is too much risk to pass up guaranteed money. The only team that projects to have more than $30 million in cap space next offseason is Brooklyn. Kuminga would also be a restricted free agent, with Golden State having the right to match an offer sheet from an opposing team.
Why it might not: If Kuminga views himself as a $224 million player and is willing to become a restricted free agent in July. Kuminga has numbers comparable to fellow rookie max players — Scottie Barnes, Evan Mobley, Franz Wagner and Cade Cunningham — but in a smaller sample of games. A reserve his first two seasons (28 starts in that span), Kuminga then started 46 games in 2023-24, averaging 17.2 points on 53% shooting. His 6.2-point increase was the third largest only behind Coby White and Alperen Sengun. Kuminga had 10 25-point games last season after Jan. 1, the most by any Warriors player 21 years or younger since Stephen Curry in 2010.
But do the Warriors believe Kuminga can evolve into their starting small forward? In the 140 possessions last season, Golden State was minus-12.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. He shot a career-worst 32.1% on 3-pointers (he did shoot 38% on 3s after Jan. 12) and averaged 10 points per game in the paint, the most of any Warriors under coach Steve Kerr, according to ESPN Research.
The other reason Golden State would exercise caution on extending Kuminga is it would lose a valuable trade chip. Kuminga does not have a six-month restriction and is still eligible to be traded prior to the Feb. 6 deadline. However, Kuminga’s potential salary in a trade becomes unbalanced due to the poison pill restriction. For example, if Kuminga signed a five-year, $175 million extension, $7.6 million (the last year of his rookie scale contract) would be used as outgoing salary and $30 million (the average of his 2024-25 salary and extension) would count as incoming salary for the team he was traded to.
What I would offer: Five years, $155 million. The extension starts at $31 million and is flat across each season. Because of the expiring contracts of De’Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney, an extension for Kuminga has Golden State below the luxury tax next season.
Why an extension could get done: If the Rockets view Green as a franchise player and don’t want to risk him entering free agency. During the Rockets’ 11-game winning streak in March, Green averaged 30.2 points while shooting 50% from the field and 45% on 3-pointers. He was the youngest player to average 30 points over an 11-game winning streak, passing Bob McAdoo and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Green has improved defensively under coach Ime Udoka, holding opponents to 0.87 points per chance when defending isolations, which was top 10 among players to defend at least 175 isolations, per Second Spectrum. He played all 82 games last season and has missed only 21 across his first three seasons.
Why it might not: Financial flexibility and another year to evaluate. The Rockets have built their roster through the draft with seven players on first-round rookie contracts. Three of the Rockets starters (Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr.) are extension eligible over the next 12 months and extending Green before the regular season reduces the Rockets financial flexibility next summer. The Rockets could enter free agency with $68 million in guaranteed salary but are still considered over the salary cap because of the free agent holds of Green, Sengun and the $44.9 million Fred VanVleet team option.
Houston has had three years to evaluate Green, but only one under coach Ime Udoka. Prior to breaking out in March, Green struggled offensively. He shot 37.2%, 42.9% and 36.8% from the field in 43 games from December to February. The inefficient play resulted in Green getting benched in the fourth quarter of two December games. In February, Green shot 26.3% on three-pointers and 15.8 points. Before the All-Star break, Green shot 41% from the field and 30.7% on 3-pointers.
“The way the CBA is set up, you can extend,” general manager Rafael Stone said after the season. “You don’t have to. And you can always revisit next summer. So in that sense, there’s no gun to our head. We’ll have conversations, we’ll see what makes sense for us, what makes sense for them, and then both sides will end up making whatever decisions we make.”
What I would offer: Five years, $145 million. The extension begins at $33 million and then declines each season. The salary in 2025-26 would rank behind only Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Zach LaVine, Anthony Edwards, CJ McCollum and Donovan Mitchell among shooting guards.
Why an extension could get done: Sengun is motivated to get an extension done and is coming off a season when he averaged career highs in points (21.1), rebounds (9.3), assists (5.0) and steals (1.2). Only Larry Bird and Grant Hill put up those numbers in their third NBA season. The 21.1 points is the most by a Rockets center since Yao Ming.
Why it might not: Sengun’s $16.4 million free agent hold next summer. Similar to the 76ers and Tyrese Maxey this summer, Houston can take advantage of the team’s friendly hold to add in free agency. For example, if Houston extends Sengun to a contract that starts at $34 million per season, the team would lose $18 million in cap space. If they wait until next summer, Houston can use available room first to sign a free agent and then sign Sengun.
If Sengun does not extend, it is not because of concerns how he fits or because the Rockets are looking to trade him. “Alpi’s going to be with us next year. We get calls on all our young guys. We have no interest in moving him,” GM Rafael Stone told SiriusXM during summer league.
What I would offer: Five years, $172.5 million. Bam Adebayo is the most recent center to sign a rookie max extension in 2020. That is likely to continue despite an All-Star caliber 2023-24 season from Sengun. An extension would start at $34.5 million and stay flat over the next three seasons.
Why an extension could get done: In the past two years, New Orleans have prioritized retaining their draft picks, first with Williamson in 2022 and then Herb Jones last offseason. As a complete two-way player, Murphy averaged a career-high 14.7 points last season and shot better than 38% on 3-pointers for a third consecutive season. He is one of two players in Pelicans history with 150-plus made 3-pointers in multiple seasons (CJ McCollum is the other). New Orleans was 11-2 in games Murphy scored 20 points or more and 24-20 when he scored fewer than 20. The Pelicans also had a plus-7.7 net rating with Murphy on the floor last season. Murphy held opponents to a 42.2% field goal percentage as the closest defender last season, fifth among the 201 players to defend at least 500 shots, per Second Spectrum.
Why it might not: Future team finances. There are three questions the Pelicans’ front office will analyze. How much does the future of Brandon Ingram play a role? Are the Pelicans willing to commit starter type money to Murphy? And most importantly, is the roster sustainable to have five players earning more than $25 million next season? The Pelicans have to ask whether paying a combined $160 million to Ingram, Williamson, Murray, McCollum and Murphy is smart business. New Orleans would be top-heavy in salary, especially if Murphy is extended and Ingram is retained.
What I would offer: Five years, $137 million. The contract is based on Ingram not being on the roster next season. Besides Jalen McDaniels last year (five years, $131 million) and De’Andre Hunter in 2022 (four years, $90 million), there are no forwards who signed a non-max rookie extension the previous two offseasons for more than $20 million per year.
Why an extension could get done: No team has been more aggressive in extending its own players than Orlando. Since the 2020 offseason, the Magic front office has signed Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony and Franz Wagner to rookie extensions. (Isaac and Carter Jr. extended their contracts a second time this offseason.)
Suggs is the quarterback of a defense that ranked in the top three last season. He tied for eighth in steals and ranked in the top 10 in defensive estimated plus-minus. As a result, Suggs became the third Magic player in franchise history to be named to the All-Defensive Team. Offensively, Suggs has continued to improve shooting since this rookie season. Last year he shot a career-high 47.1% from the field and 39.7% on 3-pointers.
Why it might not: As with many rookie extensions, Suggs may not be willing to compromise. You can make the argument that Suggs should be in line for the same five-year, $224 million max extension his teammate Franz Wagner received in July. But with Paolo Banchero in line to sign a five-year, $247 million extension next year, Orlando has to balance their future finances. Along with two first-round picks (their own and Denver’s) in June, Orlando has $165 million in salary next season — $22.5 million below the luxury tax and $30.5 million below the first apron. The good news is that Orlando has flexibility to shed $24 million in salary. Moritz Wagner, Gary Harris, Cory Joseph and Caleb Houstan have team options for 2025-26.
What I would offer: Five years, $165 million. The total amount in guaranteed money is comparable to what the Suggs can sign in the offseason with a team that has cap space, plus one more year. The Magic have a proven track record of structuring contracts that decline each year. However, because of luxury tax and apron concerns, an extension would start at $32 million and increase each season.
Why an extension could get done: Financial security. The overall lack of cap space around the league and teams not using the non-tax midlevel exception should have Kispert prioritizing guaranteed money. The Warriors were the only team this offseason to sign a player for the full $12.8 million non-tax midlevel exception.
Why it might not: If Kispert views himself as one of the top free agents and is willing to bet on himself. Kispert averaged a career-high 13.4 points last season and played in 70 or more games for the third consecutive season. His 459 3-pointers are the most in a player’s first three NBA seasons in Wizards history. Per Cleaning the Glass, Kispert ranked in the 89th percentile among all forwards in points per shot attempt and effective field goal percentage. Kispert shot 76.0% in the restricted area and ranked 10th among players with at least 150 attempts.
What I would offer: A salary that starts at the projected non-tax midlevel exception in 2025-26.
Other players eligible to sign a rookie extension: Jaden Springer (Boston), Day’Ron Sharpe (Brooklyn), Ziaire Williams (Brooklyn), Tre Mann (Charlotte), Chris Duarte (Chicago), Quentin Grimes (Dallas), Isaiah Jackson (Indiana), Bones Hyland (LA Clippers), Santi Aldama (Memphis) and Davion Mitchell (Toronto).
A year ago, Giannis Antetokounmpo shocked the league when he signed a three-year, $186 million extension with the Milwaukee Bucks one day before the start of the regular season.
“I think it was the smartest decision I could take for my family, the smartest decision that I could take for basketball,” Antetokounmpo said. “I don’t have to think about it and just play basketball.”
Since the extension, 24 players have followed, including Stephen Curry, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brunson, Bam Adebayo, Joel Embiid, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray and Lauri Markkanen.
The number of extensions continues to show players are not willing to pass up guaranteed money.
Kevin Durant (Phoenix Suns), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies), Mikal Bridges (New York Knicks) and De’Aaron Fox (Sacramento Kings) — all have two years left on their contracts and are also eligible to sign an extension until Oct. 21.
Here’s where things stand ahead of that Monday deadline:
Durant has been eligible to sign a one-year, $59.5 million extension since early July. The strong likelihood is Durant waiting until the 2025 offseason, when he would be eligible to sign a two-year, $123.8 million extension in Phoenix, sources told ESPN. By waiting, Durant would earn an extra $64.3 million.
Bridges is restricted on how much he can sign for because he was traded to New York in July. He is eligible to sign a two-year, $60 million extension or he could become eligible to sign a four-year, $156 million extension off his current deal, which is currently viewed next offseason as one of the league’s best value contracts. The $34.8 million first-year salary would begin in the 2026-27 season.
Jackson can sign a three-year, $106.2 million extension that would start in 2026-27. If he doesn’t, he can become supermax eligible by being named All-NBA or winning Defensive Player of the Year next season. Jackson was named DPOY in 2023.
As ESPN’s Shams Charania reported, Fox is bypassing a three-year, $165 million extension in Sacramento. In doing so, he would become eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million extension with the Kings next offseason or a five-year, $345 million supermax extension if he is named All-NBA this season.
Note: A player in the last year of his contract or who has an option, such as Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon, is allowed to extend up until June 30.
Oct. 21 deadline: Trae Young, Cody Martin, Dean Wade, Daniel Gafford, Maxi Kleber, Michael Porter Jr., Norman Powell, Marcus Smart, Duncan Robinson, Terry Rozier, CJ McCollum, Mitchell Robinson, Jusuf Nurkic, Robert Williams, Anfernee Simons, Deandre Ayton, Kevin Huerter and Collin Sexton.
June 30 deadline: Clint Capela, Garrison Mathews, Larry Nance Jr., Bojan Bogdanovic (as of Oct. 30), Al Horford, Ben Simmons, Lonzo Ball, Sam Merrill, Jaden Hardy, Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr., Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, Jae’sean Tate, Steven Adams, PJ Tucker, Amir Coffey, Jimmy Butler, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Josh Minott, Brandon Ingram, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Caleb Houstan, Jabari Walker, Chris Boucher, John Collins, Malcolm Brogdon, and Marvin Bagley III.
Nearly 100 players will hit the waiver wire by Saturday night ahead of Monday’s deadline for teams to cut rosters to 15 players.
Teams will incur a per-day cap hit if a player signed to a non-guaranteed contract is not waived by 5 p.m. ET on Saturday. For example, the Celtics would be charged $15,018 per day against the cap — and a $58K per-day tax penalty — if Lonnie Walker IV is not waived Saturday.
Here are nine teams to watch as the Monday roster deadline approaches:
Roster deadline decision: Lonnie Walker IV
Signed to a non-guaranteed contract right before the start of training camp, Walker is currently occupying the last roster spot in Boston. He scored a preseason-high 20 points in a win against Toronto on Oct. 13, and Walker averaged 11.1 points per game over the last four seasons. His contract is not guaranteed until Jan. 7.
Roster deadline decision: Talen Horton-Tucker
The Bulls signed Horton-Tucker to a training camp contract in the offseason. The five-year veteran scored 16 points in the preseason loss to Memphis, but in order to keep him, Chicago would need to waive Onuralp Bitim. The salary protection for Bitim increases to $350K if he is not waived by Oct. 22.
Roster deadline decision: Markieff Morris
The Mavericks waived AJ Lawson in training camp, re-signed him to a two-way deal and now have the flexibility to keep Morris or explore the waiver wire. Not including Morris’ non-guaranteed contract for $2.1 million, Dallas is $2.6 million below the apron. Morris has played five minutes in the preseason.
Roster deadline decision: Kevin Knox, Lindy Waters III, or Gui Santos
Golden State is another team pressed against the first apron. The Warriors are $534K below the threshold and need to waive Waters or Santos to retain Kevin Knox, or sign a veteran. Waters and Santos’ contracts are guaranteed on Jan. 7. Knox scored six points in two preseason games.
Roster deadline decision: Nassir Little
The Heat signed veteran Little to a non-guaranteed contract. His current $2.1 million salary would put Miami over the second apron if Little is not waived by the start of the regular season. However, because the contract is non-guaranteed, Miami has until Jan. 7 to keep Little and still remain below the apron. Little played in one preseason game and did not score.
Roster deadline decision: PJ Dozier, Keita Bates-Diop, or Leonard Miller
The Karl-Anthony Towns trade has left Minnesota with 15 players on guaranteed contracts after Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo arrived. PJ Dozier is on a partially guaranteed contract with $1 million in salary protection. To keep the guard, Minnesota would have to waive (or trade) Keita Bates-Diop or former second-round pick Leonard Miller. Minnesota has $300 million projected payroll this season, its most ever as a franchise.
Roster deadline decision: Landry Shamet
The Towns trade put New York $3.6 million below the second apron and left the contender with little flexibility in how they can add to their roster. One option is to retain Shamet and then convert the two-way contract of second-round pick Ariel Hukporti. New York could waive Shamet — his 2.1 million salary isn’t guaranteed until Oct. 19 — and sign a replacement. Shamet averaged 23 minutes and 12 points in the preseason but injured his shoulder in Tuesday’s win against Charlotte. New York can start the season with 12 players on standard contracts but is not allowed to have fewer than 14 players for more than 28 total days during the regular season and 14 consecutive days at a time.
Roster deadline decision: Backcourt depth
The Kings’ backcourt has been bitten by the injury bug. First-round pick Devin Carter underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July and Jordan McLaughlin suffered a right ankle sprain in training camp. The Kings signed Boogie Ellis to a training camp contract and could keep him as an insurance policy. Not including Ellis, Sacramento is $3.7 million below the luxury tax.
Roster deadline decision: Who keeps the 15th spot?
The Wizards’ decision for the last spot on the roster likely comes down to three options: guard Jared Butler and two former first-round picks in Johnny Davis and Patrick Baldwin Jr. Butler is on a non-guaranteed contract but gives Washington depth following Malcolm Brogdon’s thumb surgery. Davis and Baldwin have guaranteed contracts this season.
