We’re 11 games into the Premier League season, and congrats if you predicted any of this!
Arne Slot’s Liverpool can’t stop winning; Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City can’t stop losing; Arsenal are tied on points with Nottingham Forest and Brighton; Fulham got better by letting their presumptive best player leave for Bayern Munich. And Manchester United are currently in a tie for 12th place, thanks to a goal differential of exactly zero.
OK, fine. You probably got that last one. After all, scoring as many goals as they’ve conceded is actually a slight improvement on last season for United.
But beyond that, it’s been a season of consolidation in the Premier League thus far. While Liverpool have built up a five-point lead atop the table — with Manchester City in second — only seven points separate Chelsea in third and West Ham in 14th. Heck, the gap between Liverpool and Arsenal is the same as the gap between Arsenal and Leicester City.
So, with everything all muddled up below the surprise leader, we are back to cut through the noise and try to provide a true assessment of the current levels of team strength all across the Premier League. As always, we have each ranked all 20 teams, 1-20, and then combined their rankings to produce one master ranking. The criteria: who we think would win a match if any of these teams played each other on a neutral field in the near future.
The updated rankings are below, followed by some analysis of the most notable changes (or non-changes) from the previous edition of our rankings.
November and September’s rankings — the combination of Bill and Ryan’s individual rankings — are listed along with the new adjustments, plus each team’s present points total on the Premier League table and goal differential:
It is a tradition in itself: Manchester City go through a rough patch in the fall or early winter, a challenger (either Liverpool or Arsenal) eases ahead in the table, and you start to wonder if City might actually be in danger of not winning the title. Then you check the title odds, and Opta says City still have a 78% chance of finishing first or something similar.
That’s an exaggeration — there were times in their race with Arsenal last year where the odds were legitimately wobbly — but it always feels true: No matter what the table says, City are going to figure things out, surge in the spring, and lift the trophy. After all, they’ve done so in six of the last seven seasons. They could do so again in 2024-25, and it wouldn’t surprise a soul.
But there are legitimate danger signs at the moment. Pep Guardiola’s squad have lost four matches in a row in all competitions (including two in the Premier League), and really the only times they’ve flashed true dominance since August was against Sparta Prague and Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League. They’re not suffering fluky losses, either: They had a negative xG differential in all four recent losses, and over the last six Premier League matchdays, they have ranked ninth in xG differential, barely ahead of West Ham United.
You know all the reasons for the struggles by now. They’ve gotten just 156 (of a possible 990) minutes from Ballon d’Or winner Rodri (ACL), 223 from defender Nathan Aké (hamstring) and 424 from Kevin De Bruyne (hamstring). Manuel Akanji and Matheus Nunes are now hurt, too. Jack Grealish is a mess. The squad is somehow both too old (Kyle Walker and Ilkay Gündogan are 34 and suddenly look it) and too young (19-year old Rico Lewis is the minutes leader in all competitions) at the moment, and the uncertainty from both Guardiola’s contract situation and, of course, the 115 charges have loomed for a while.
Guardiola agreed to a contract extension on Tuesday, which helps, but it looks as if City will have to do some legitimate business in the January transfer window to have a shot at holding onto the title. They not only trail Liverpool by five points in the table, but Opta’s title odds actually swing heavily toward Liverpool as well — the Reds currently have a 62% chance of winning the league to City’s 32%.
This is a genuinely uncertain moment for the annual champions. That’s why we had to drop them all the way to, gasp, second in the power rankings. Liverpool have dropped only five points in 15 matches in all competitions this season; they have been superior to City in nearly every way thus far and have earned the top spot heading into the winter months. — Connelly
Yes, yes, and here’s why we only have them in 10th:
– Non-penalty expected goals through 11 games: 16.56, 10th in the league
– Non-penalty xG conceded: 16.97, 14th in the league
Research has shown that giving some weight to actual goals (30% G, 70% xG) is a better indicator of team strength, though, so what if we look at those numbers?
– Adjusted non-penalty goals per game: 1.57, 7th
– Adjusted non-penalty goals allowed: 1.43, 12th
If we combine those together, it would give Brighton an adjusted goal differential of 0.14 per game — or, tied for the ninth-best mark in the league with Bournemouth. Given how bunched up things are in the table, it’s not really any kind of stretch to suggest that the team in sixth in the table are closer to the ninth- or 10th-best side in the Premier League. There is currently one point separating sixth from ninth in the table.
Insofar as there is a problem at Brighton — well, I’m not sure there is. They’re a top-half quality team with a bottom-half wage bill. At the same time, they spent a ton of money on transfer fees over the summer. Their net-spend on fees was minus-€182.91 million — by far the biggest number in the Premier League. Even still, I think that would bring their overall squad cost — players salaries, plus fees paid to acquire those players — right around their performance level this season.
However, I do think Brighton’s ambitions are bigger than “being the ninth- or 10th-best team,” so what might prevent this team from maintaining their loftier position in the table? Their attack has been roughly as good as Arsenal’s so far this season, and I’m not sure you can expect much more than that.
On the other end, though, they’re suffering from a quite common problem: they press high, they control attacking-third possession, they limit shots … and they give up super-high-quality chances. Here’s a plot of shots allowed, compared to the average xG value of those shots:
The attack is probably just about good enough to get Brighton into the top-six mix, but the defense is simply allowing too many high-quality shots. If you’re going to be conceding such high-quality chances because of how aggressively you play in possession and with your press, you have to eliminate another shot or two per game in order to really push higher up the table. And while there are probably some tactical edges still to be pushed by manager Fabian Hurzeler, the easiest way to fix that problem is to have better midfielders. These players allow you to control more possession and break up counter-attacks — both of which would suppress the opposition shot count.
It’s not a coincidence that Brighton’s best-ever Premier League campaign came two seasons ago, with a midfield of Alexis Mac Allister and Moisés Caicedo. They’re still two of the best midfielders in the league; unfortunately they play for different teams (Liverpool and Chelsea) now.
Brighton certainly have a bunch of promising young midfielders on the roster: Jack Hinshelwood (19), Carlos Baleba (20) and Yasin Ayari (21). But, to my eye, they’re all still imperfect prospects rather than reliable players. And when you have players like that in such a high-touch position, you can swing back and forth between genuinely outplaying Manchester City and getting completely destroyed by Chelsea.
Brighton have banked enough points from a really tough schedule that it wouldn’t surprise me if they hung around the top four-ish area for a while. Plus, their young coach and young players could all improve as the season goes on. But without a sturdier midfield or the emergence of some new elite attacking talent, I’d expect plenty of volatility over the final 27 matches. — O’Hanlon
I’ve been quite critical of Newcastle so far this season. I put Eddie Howe toward the warmer end of the managerial hot-seat index. And just generally, any time I’ve had the opportunity to write or talk about them, I’ve said some version of: uh … so that’s it?
This team have the richest owners in all of professional sports, and they’re happy to just be a mid-table Premier League team? Really? What happened to that ascendant, physical, vertical, frightening side that pushed toward the top of the Premier League two seasons ago and rocked Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 at St. James’s Park? That match was supposed to mark Newcastle’s arrival on the European stage. Instead, it turned out just to be a high-water mark. They fell apart in the second half of last season, and they started off this year by scraping together an OK collection of results from pretty poor overall performances. But over the past month-and-a-half, there have at least been some signs that they’re starting to piece things back together.
While Newcastle have only won seven points from their five matches since the start of October, they have have the second-best non-penalty xG differential in the league over that stretch:
Their last match in October was quite impressive, too, even if it only ended in a solitary point. (Newcastle’s goal — and best chance of the match — was a penalty, so it doesn’t appear in the image below.)
Newcastle have beaten Arsenal, Tottenham, and Nottingham Forest. They’ve drawn with City and their only losses came away to Fulham, home against Brighton, and away to Chelsea. Their other results were road draws against Bournemouth (who have beaten both City and Arsenal) and Everton, who were lucky to hang on for a 0-0 tie. There’s not a bad result anywhere in there.
Now, I’m not saying this team are anywhere near as good as they were two seasons ago, or even over the first couple months of last year. They’re still conceding more shots than they take, on average. But after it fell apart right around this time a year ago, the defense has steadily improved as this season has gone on. On top of that, they’ve done it with that weird Howe-ian tactical mix: an aggressive press that’s not paired with attacking-third possession but rather with high-speed movements right toward goal.
Their defensive personnel still leaves a lot to be desired — 32-year-olds Dan Burn and Fabian Schär are their most-used defenders — but with Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimarães, there’s true high-end talent in the midfield and the attack.
As of now, there are three points separating third through 11th in the table. It seems likely that Arsenal will eventually separate from that pack as the season goes on, but Newcastle have a big advantage over almost all of the other teams who will be fighting for that fourth Champions League spot. That is, we’ve seen them — these same players, this same coach — do it before. — O’Hanlon
Nottingham Forest and Fulham began the season 14th and 16th, respectively, in our power ranking. In September, they had risen to a tie for 10th and tie for 14th, and the slow crawl has continued since. They are currently fifth and seventh in the Premier League table, and while asking them to remain in those spots for six more months is probably a bit much, both look like genuine top-half-of-the-table contenders.
For Forest, who handed Liverpool their only loss in any competition this season and drew with Chelsea, but haven’t played Manchester City or Arsenal yet, their rise has proven the power of identity.
Manager Nuno Espirito Santo was fired within four months at Tottenham Hotspur in 2021 and was dismissed from Saudi side Al Ittihad last November, which obviously tamped down his managerial reputation a bit, but he has great attacking personnel for his counter-attacking preferences. Chris Wood has scored eight goals; the 32-year old is overachieving a bit in the finishing department (he’s attempted shots worth just 4.5 xG), but he’s also complemented perfectly young attacking midfielders Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga and Elliot Anderson, who have combined for five assists from 59 chances created. Plus, goalkeeper Matz Sels has been average to above-average, providing massive improvement over last year’s almost unsustainably poor keeping.
Forest are tied with Arsenal for first in the league in goals from set pieces (five), and they’re both second in counterattacks (behind Bournemouth) and third in shots from counterattacks. They do the things Espirito Santo wants to do quite well, and have been rewarded in the table.
Fulham, meanwhile, have done what solid mid-table teams have done for generations: Play well against, and take points from, worse teams. Their three losses have come against Aston Villa at home and the two Manchester clubs away, but they beat Newcastle in September, and more importantly, they’re unbeaten against everyone else. They rank sixth in possession rate (53.6%) and have been over 50% in that regard against everyone but Newcastle and the two Manchester clubs. They control the ball, and when it enters the defensive box, they shoot: They rank third in both shots per possession (0.14) and percentage of shots coming inside the box (73%). And only Brighton have drawn opponents offside more (3.1 times per match), which suggests their high defensive line does its job.
Their possession grows stale at times, but Alex Iwobi (first among Premier League attackers in progressive passes) and Adama Traoré (fourth among attackers in 1v1 attempts, fifth in duel success rate) are absolute handfuls on the wings. Raúl Jiménez is converting his chances thus far, and summer additions Emile Smith Rowe and Reiss Nelson, both from Arsenal (Nelson is on loan) have contributed four goals and three assists from 24 chances created.
Like Espirito Santo, Marco Silva seems to have the pieces he needs, and their position in the table isn’t particularly fluky. — Connelly
Through 11 matches, United rank somewhere between eighth and 12th in just about every key, top-level metric:
– Points: 13, tied for 12th
– Goal differential: 0, tied for 10th
– Expected-goal differential: plus-0.6, tied for 11th
The funny part is that they are not an average offensive or defensive team, though. They’ve scored 12 goals, which is the 16th-best mark in the league. And they’ve allowed 12, which is the fourth-best mark in the league.
Even funnier to me is that the expected-goal numbers tell the opposite story. They’ve created 17.4 xG, which is seventh-best in the league, and they’ve allowed 16.7, which is 12th-best in the league.
Based on all of that, my prediction for the first partial season of the Rúben Amorim era is that United do improve to the level of the seventh- or eighth-best team in the Premier League. Given the information we have available to us, I’m assuming that Amorim is a better coach than Erik ten Hag. That could change, but for now we have nothing but wild success from Amorim — in a lower-level league, yes, but in a country that produces tons of top-level managers. And for Ten Hag, we have impressive stints in the Eredivisie, which hasn’t exported many top-level coaches recently, followed by massive under-performance in his two-plus years at United.
However, my guess is the way United will improve under Amorim is that their attack gets significantly better than it was under Ten Hag this season but their defense actually performs slightly worse. Given this is already a throw-away season at Old Trafford, what United fan wouldn’t take a couple more points and a lot more goals from here on out? — O’Hanlon
Last year’s Premier League relegation race was one of the dullest on record. The three promoted teams (Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United) combined to win 14 of 114 matches and immediately dropped back into the second division. Even with both Everton and Nottingham Forest battling point deductions, there were few moments of significant uncertainty. Forest earned the lowest points total ever for a surviving team (32 points) and still remained six clear.
This time around, three teams have odds of over 50%, per Opta, to get relegated. They are the three promoted teams — Southampton (95%), Ipswich (67%) and Leicester City (55%) — but things don’t feel nearly as certain, at least not yet. They are all among the six clubs averaging under one point per match thus far, but Wolves and Crystal Palace have just six and seven points, respectively, from 11 matches. And while Everton have improved since their dismal start, they’ve still only beaten Palace and Ipswich and are just three points clear.
Palace and Wolves have been unfortunate in different ways. Palace have produced a positive xG differential in four matches but have won only once — in 2-2 draws with both Leicester and Wolves, they attempted shots worth a combined 5.1 xG and allowed shots worth 2.7 but took just two points. They’re showing hints of improvement, with two of those positive-xG matches coming in their last three outings, including a legitimately sound win over Spurs. Their relegation odds, per Opta, are only 17% despite their 18th-place spot in the table, and we’re confident enough in them to rank them tied for 14th.
Wolves, however, might be in legitimate danger, though we won’t know for sure until the schedule lets up further. In their first 11 matches, seven have come against the top eight teams in the power rankings above. They pulled one point from those seven matches, getting outscored 18-7.
Using Opta’s power ratings, they have faced the toughest set of Premier League opponents to date, with only Brighton coming particularly close.
(That Everton have averaged under one point per game against the weakest set of opponents in the league isn’t the most encouraging sign in the world.)
Honestly, that Wolves scored seven goals in those seven matches against particularly good teams might be a good sign moving forward. In their last four matches against lower-rated teams, they scored nine. Their last three matches before the international break were all against lower-rated teams — Brighton (2-2 draw), Crystal Palace (2-2 draw) and Southampton (2-0 win) — and they earned five points while scoring six goals. Matheus Cunha has five goals and two assists from 20 chances created, and he’s got two goals, two assists and nine chances created in the last three matches (all against lower-rated teams).
Wolves dug themselves a hole by not pulling at least a few more points against a murderer’s row of opponents, and per Opta they have a 43% chance of relegation because of it, but maybe pure goal scoring will keep them afloat. — Connelly
