After making their FIFA World Cup debut as hosts in 2022, the goal was always for Qatar to return to the big stage on merit this time around.
With the World Cup’s expansion to a 48-team tournament in 2026 and the Asian Football Confederation now being allocated a guaranteed eight berths, it always seemed likely they would.
Especially given their status as the back-to-back reigning champions of the continent, following their AFC Asian Cup triumphs in 2019 and earlier this year.
But with six matches played and just four to go in the third round of the Asian qualifiers, Qatar find themselves languishing in fourth position in the six-team Group A.
The numbers are rather damning.
Iran were always going to be main contenders for top spot but, based on recent history, the Qataris should have fancied their chances of finishing above Uzbekistan and United Arab Emirates, who are admittedly no slouches themselves but — on paper, at least — slightly inferior outfits.
Kyrgyz Republic and North Korea were always expected to prop up the standings.
Yet, into the second half of the campaign, Qatar have notched just two wins — with their seven-point haul leaving them three points adrift of third-placed UAE and six off the second automatic qualifying spot that Uzbekistan currently occupy.
With 17 goals conceded, Qatar actually have the worst defensive record out of all 18 teams, including a China outfit that suffered a 7-0 loss to Japan in the opening match day, as well as sides like Indonesia and Kuwait who sit almost 100 places lower in the FIFA world rankings.
On Tuesday, the Qataris were handed the humiliation of a 5-0 loss to UAE. The contest was effectively over by halftime when they trailed by three goals, as they had absolutely no answer to Fábio Lima — who would finish the game with a quartet of strikes, including a sumptuous 30-yard freekick.
Earlier in the campaign, they had already suffered the ignominy of a 2-2 draw with North Korea, who did not even participate in World Cup qualification last time out and actually played over an hour with ten men after a red card to captain Jang Kuk-Chol.
Last Thursday, Qatar needed a 112th-minute equaliser to snatch a 3-2 win over Uzbekistan — having already relinquished a two-goal advantage from the first half.
The Qataris are already in a sticky situation and it could actually have been even worse, so what exactly has gone wrong for a side who are technically the best in the continent for the past five years given their consecutive Asian Cup triumphs?
The immediate assumption would be that, in their quest to reach their goal of Asian Cup success and World Cup qualification, Qatar went all in on the here and now and neglected long-term sustainability in the process.
It explains why old heads such as Boualem Khoukhi, Abdulaziz Hatem and, until recently, former captain Hassan Al-Haydos continued to play pivotal roles despite their advancing years.
Nonetheless, that could not be further from the truth.
The nucleus of the drought-ending Asian Cup triumph five years ago had a youthful nature to it. It seems like Akram Afif and Almoez Ali have been around forever but both, despite having 118 caps to their names, are still only 28.
Bassam Al-Rawi, another standout from that campaign, has dropped out of the starting XI recently but is two years younger and should still be an important figure of Qatar’s future.
Meshaal Barsham has now permanently succeeded Saad Al-Sheeb in goal, while the likes of Mohammed Waad and Jassem Gaber are increasingly influential. All three are below the age of 27.
There is also the recent emergence of 19-year-old Ibrahim Al-Hassan, who is currently honing his craft in the reserve team of Spanish fourth-tier outfit Calahorra on loan from Al Rayyan. It may not be the most glamorous of settings, especially considering someone like Afif once had a stint in LaLiga with Villarreal, but Al-Hassan has shown promise.
Unlike some of their counterparts, including naturalisation proponents UAE, the Qataris haven’t opted for too many short-term fixes — with the only foreign-born fixture in the starting XI being Lucas Mendes, who has proven to be a valuable addition.
To say the man at the helm is the issue would also be harsh, given that it was Tintín Márquez who guided them to their second Asian Cup title despite having some big shoes to fill in the wake of Félix Sánchez.
Perhaps, it is simply a situation they currently find themselves in — and the unfortunate timing of it — that has been the cause of Qatar’s woes.
Márquez seems to be currently undecided on what his best system is. This past week, a 5-3-2 against Uzbekistan was followed by a 4-3-3 against UAE. He has even gone old school with a 4-4-2 previously in the campaign.
Afif, undeniably Qatar, has gone from his preferred role of No. 10 to an out-and-out striker and then over to the left wing. Tarek Salman has flitted between the right side of a back four and being one of the centre-backs in a three-man defence.
The Spanish tactician did his fair share of tinkering back at the Asian Cup but it was ultimately a 3-4-2-1 that served them best. It allowed Afif all the freedom to be the creative force that he is but, the fact that there has been no suitable candidate to take over the other attacking midfield role that Al-Haydos occupied for over a decade has perhaps been the reason behind Márquez’s experiments.
Maybe also, the biggest void that Al-Haydos has left is not out on the field but in the dressing room.
Afif has since taken over the captaincy and is a worthy successor as the team’s best player, but is a different kind of leader. He has always been more of the type to inspire the troops with a moment of brilliance rather issue a rallying cry, even if he will eventually find his voice.
Along with the gradual phasing out of Al-Sheeb and 135-cap left-back Abdelkarim Hassan, Qatar are now undergoing a leadership transition and that always comes with its fair share of hurdles.
Ultimately, Qatar will not be able to run away from the fact that they are currently embroiled in some testing times. They simply will not be able to, given a place in the World Cup is on the line.
With four games remaining, the Qataris just have to find a way to gather enough momentum for at least a top-four finish, which will give minimally give them a second shot in the next round of qualification — and more time to figure out just what exactly is going wrong.
