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The winner of this match will face either Iga Swiatek or Mirra Andreeva in the semifinals.
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Kenin has been trying to regain her Slam-winning form of 2020 for a couple of years now, without much sustained success. Is that finally beginning to change? She has had a respectable February, winning two matches in Abu Dhabi, two in Doha, and now three in Dubai, including a straight-setter over a seed, Donna Vekic.
Now the American will get a proper test from a Top 5 opponent. Kenin and Rybakina have played twice, and Rybakina has won both times. But they’ve been close: They played three sets on this court five years ago, and two tiebreakers at Indian Wells in 2023.
Rybakina will be favored to make it 3-0. She’s the better server and the bigger hitter, and the points will mostly rest on her racquet. In the last round, she saved six match points in a marathon win over Paula Badosa. Will that leave her sluggish for this one, or will it make her confident that he can come back from any deficit? Even if it’s a little of both, she’s still the favorite. Winner: Rybakina—Steve Tignor
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Rybakina is a -375 moneyline favorite; Kenin is a +290 underdog.
To win the tournament, Rybakina is +333 and Kenin +1600.
(Odds from BetMGM as of 4:20 pm ET on Wednesday, February 19)
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