Revolutions often end badly. Bangladesh’s autocratic leader, Sheikh Hasina, was overthrown by student-led protests in August. Muhammad Yunus, a microfinance pioneer and Nobel peace laureate who now leads a caretaker government, has restored order. The police are mostly back in their posts, having abandoned them when Sheikh Hasina, who had ordered them to shoot and kill protesters, fled to India. The economy is no longer in free-fall. Remittances, worth 5% of GDP, have stabilised. Yet huge challenges loom. How Bangladesh deals with them will affect not only the lives of its 173m people, but also its neighbours and the rivalry between India, China and the West.
PREMIUMAwkwardly, Mr Yunus leads a government that has no legal basis. Sheikh Hasina scrapped a constitutional provision that allowed for interim governments in 2011. So his legitimacy rests on his moral authority and popularity—a rickety foundation, unsupported by any vote. Public goodwill could cool. Despite the stabilisation of the economy, food inflation was nearly 13% year-on-year in October. Adani Group, an Indian firm which provides around 10% of Bangladesh’s electricity, has started to curb supplies, citing payment arrears. Flooding has hurt rice production.
Mr Yunus is wonkish. He has no experience of governing, and is squeezed between two forces. The student protesters who propelled him into power are making increasingly extreme demands. These include banning the Awami League (AL), Sheikh Hasina’s party, and trying to have her extradited from India to face charges for what they allege are crimes against humanity. The other force is the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main rival to the AL. It wants Mr Yunus to call elections soon, perhaps as early as June, and may stage mass protests until he does so.
Some alarming scenarios are possible. The student protesters, frustrated by Mr Yunus’s fairly tolerant approach to the AL, could take to the streets again, this time threatening violence. In a country with a history of political killings, this is a grave worry. Hindus, who make up 8% of the population and include many AL supporters, have already been attacked by members of the Muslim majority.
Another concern is that Mr Yunus may capitulate to the demands of the BNP before he has had time to enact the reforms needed to fix a rotten judicial system and to ensure that an election can be free and fair. If the bnp were to win a flawed, premature poll, it might herald a return to Bangladesh’s bad old pattern of power alternating between thuggish oligarchies.
What can be done? As the world prepares for a second Trump presidency, Bangladesh is hardly the first priority for any government. Still, other countries can help by ensuring that Bangladesh avoids a financial crisis while it is enduring a political one. The country already has a $1.2bn package of aid from America and a $4.7bn bail-out from the IMF, but it could need more. America’s government is helping Bangladesh’s central bank retrieve some of the $17bn it says was siphoned abroad under Sheikh Hasina. If Western lenders and India do not keep the country afloat, it may become indebted to China instead, which has dangled the promise of an additional $5bn in grants and loans.
The most important tasks are for Mr Yunus. After three months in charge, he must now establish a timetable for elections, perhaps in a year or so. He must then do more to explain why a delay is needed to push through legal and electoral reforms that will allow democracy to thrive in the long run. Many people cheered when Mr Yunus became the nation’s caretaker. But he needs to spell out a clear plan for how he will govern, and how he will hand over power. If he leaves it too late, Bangladesh’s revolution could yet turn dark.
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Bangladesh
