US election Nostradamus, who has accurately forecasted nearly every White House election since 1984, feels Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris may face significant issue in November due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
In September, Allan Lichtman firmly predicted that Harris would emerge victorious in the 2024 race using his “Keys to the White House” theory. However, he is now acknowledging that her path to victory may not be so smooth.
His prior prediction centered on thirteen ‘keys,’ or criteria that evaluate the nominee’s record on a range of topics, including foreign policy, domestic politics, and the economy.
All thirteen keys in Lichtman’s model can be interpreted as a true-or-false assertion. He thinks the contender will win the election if eight or more of these suggestions are accurate.
Detractors started pointing out errors in his prediction algorithm after he declared that Harris would be the next US president.
What is Kamala Harris’ weakness in this election?
The historian now seems less certain about Harris’ success in his “foreign policy key,” which he had earlier stated would be advantageous here.
Lichtman blamed this on the Ukraine war, claiming that it is one of Harris’s biggest weaknesses.
During a live-streamed YouTube interview on Wednesday, he said that his earlier prediction was in favour of the Biden administration because it was the incumbent president who assembled the Western coalition that prevented Putin from annexing Ukraine, attacking the NATO allies of the US, and seriously jeopardising the national security of the nation.
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The 77-year-old historian further mentioned that US assistance has kept Ukraine “alive” for more than 2.5 years before adding, “Wars are fluid.”
“And I suppose there could be a catastrophe in Ukraine,” the professor at American University continued.
Speaking to Newsweek on Friday, Lichtman clarified that he identified foreign policy as the shakiest since wars are “uncertain”, adding that he is sure that it “will not flip”.
According to him, the US VP has four negative keys and a two-key cushion and this is why a flip would not alter the forecast.
