One of the International Monetary Fund’s top economists signals little risk of a global recession, despite the ongoing rumblings of geopolitical uncertainty.
The Washington DC-based institute this week nudged its global growth outlook slightly higher to 3.2% in 2024 and projects the same rate in 2025.
“When we do the risk assessment around that baseline, the chances that we would have something like a global recession is fairly minimal. At this point, it will take a lot to derail this economy. So there has been tremendous resilience in terms of growth prospects,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of the research department at the IMF, told CNBC’s Karen Tso on Tuesday at the group’s meeting in New York.
The “set of good news” includes strong economic performance by the U.S. and several emerging market economies, along with inflation falling faster than expected until recently despite weaker growth in Europe, Gourinchas said.
